{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8cca9ba7-cbf8-4369-a07e-57d0f4bc998f", "symbol": "ALKT", "name": "Alkami Technology, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.429, "architecture_energy": 62.161, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.091, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.37, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 27.0, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 43.63, "downward_expansion": 61.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 300.571997, 292.026905, 295.802616, 347.211933 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 314.0, "trend_reference": 424.266666, "distance_from_trend": -0.259899, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 496.564102, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.367655, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.989431, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.494364, "excess_performance": -0.439697, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.259899, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207796, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.367655, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011067, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.399894, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135757, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.494364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.586826, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.586826, "dry_up": 0.985222, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01901, "annualized_volatility": 1.004216, "from_high_reference": -0.494364, "from_low_reference": 0.119709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 424.266666, "fair_value_reference": 496.564102, "structural_low": 280.429993, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.00575, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.119709, "worst_return": -0.085177, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.085177, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034804, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.085177, "worst_return": -0.085177, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.407895, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.160748, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.024336, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", 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-63.333333, "energy": 87.166667, "activity_lines": [ 280.429993, 280.985811, 311.331045, 374.75316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 280.429993, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 24.45, "trend": 444.733333, "fair_value": 495.74359, "relative_strength": -47.534891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.5, "energy": 85.124999, "activity_lines": [ 280.429993, 280.429993, 302.454996, 363.420535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 314.0, "volume": 120, "typical_volume": 30.45, "trend": 434.499999, "fair_value": 496.153846, "relative_strength": -40.861363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.976032, "energy": 83.49168, "activity_lines": [ 291.619995, 286.533631, 298.397854, 354.986127 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 314.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.45, "trend": 424.266666, "fair_value": 496.564102, "relative_strength": -39.989431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.428939, "energy": 62.16117, "activity_lines": [ 300.571997, 292.026905, 295.802616, 347.211933 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }