{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ccaf556-4546-4a8f-8dbf-1bca77893b32", "symbol": "CHOSA", "name": "CHOSA Oncology AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.285, "architecture_energy": 28.826, "architecture_maturity": 37.345, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.76, "rotation_up": 20.54, "upward_expansion": 6.26, "deceleration": 42.15, "rotation_down": 45.19, "downward_expansion": 74.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.797733, 0.811345, 0.821024, 0.824828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.76, "trend_reference": 0.836833, "distance_from_trend": -0.091814, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.847064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.102784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.810342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05, "excess_performance": -0.111494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091814, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068581, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.102784, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002905, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.308103, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091653, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.286114, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104228, "relative_activity": 0.580095, "balance": 0.286114, "dry_up": 0.313896, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.151012, "annualized_volatility": 0.565189, "from_high_reference": -0.654545, "from_low_reference": 0.381818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.836833, "fair_value_reference": 0.847064, "structural_low": 0.695, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.045783, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.060392, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.776952, "worst_return": -0.359281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.211566, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.210948, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.04461, "worst_return": -0.355993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.417143, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.301119, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.007435, "worst_return": -0.492243, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.190248, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.375035, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.085714, "worst_return": -0.294781, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.907063, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071845, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017034, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.238095, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081633, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023739, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.377143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.669643, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.719298, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078014, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.416058, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.204819, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.149888, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.0, "volume": 136779, "typical_volume": 209185.1, "trend": 1.3758, "fair_value": 14.475808, "relative_strength": -10.579934, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.272966, "energy": 20.402215, "activity_lines": [ 0.813867, 0.820582, 0.828614, 0.831417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.826, "volume": 14197, "typical_volume": 184365.75, "trend": 0.842667, "fair_value": 0.848885, "relative_strength": -23.334057, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.932197, "energy": 17.519668, "activity_lines": [ 0.816667, 0.822655, 0.828143, 0.830161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.76, "volume": 104228, "typical_volume": 179673.9, "trend": 0.836833, "fair_value": 0.847064, "relative_strength": -30.810342, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.284815, "energy": 28.825818, "activity_lines": [ 0.797733, 0.811345, 0.821024, 0.824828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }