{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ccf5de8-000d-4a78-a8bc-c18f832834f0", "symbol": "603159", "name": "Shanghai Yahong Moulding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.375, "architecture_energy": 51.847, "architecture_maturity": 41.961, "architecture_confidence": 86.055, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.78, "rotation_up": 19.52, "upward_expansion": 7.88, "deceleration": 59.89, "rotation_down": 62.25, "downward_expansion": 83.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.773334, 19.251273, 21.775857, 22.97628 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.540001, "trend_reference": 24.438, "distance_from_trend": -0.159506, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.185688, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.195181, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.049537, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.23813, "excess_performance": -0.194927, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159506, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042323, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.195181, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.351074, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140495, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181438, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.23813, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.577062, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12787380, "relative_activity": 1.199687, "balance": 1.577062, "dry_up": 1.808699, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141637, "annualized_volatility": 0.705905, "from_high_reference": -0.310738, "from_low_reference": 0.260896 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.438, "fair_value_reference": 17.185688, "structural_low": 16.290001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.009788, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.001768, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.375465, "worst_return": -0.115562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.0274, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005145, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.599147, "worst_return": -0.170673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.011144, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001114, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.591684, "worst_return": -0.239909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.223636, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118774, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097945, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006002, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.540133, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.946441, "energy": 88.273512, "activity_lines": [ 19.452, 22.211818, 23.897, 24.617656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.459999, "volume": 25866992, "typical_volume": 8980827.5, "trend": 25.068, "fair_value": 17.107195, "relative_strength": -19.340538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.26371, "energy": 87.58089, "activity_lines": [ 18.597333, 21.229091, 23.297762, 24.182623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.66, "volume": 26595730, "typical_volume": 9991086.15, "trend": 24.88, "fair_value": 17.126132, "relative_strength": -23.834494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.426477, "energy": 86.727844, "activity_lines": [ 17.978667, 20.229273, 22.660714, 23.704688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.66, "volume": 11865100, "typical_volume": 10255249.0, "trend": 24.610333, "fair_value": 17.144564, "relative_strength": -24.038406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.972123, "energy": 74.894939, "activity_lines": [ 17.916, 19.375636, 22.060048, 23.238882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.540001, "volume": 12787380, "typical_volume": 10658934.1, "trend": 24.438, "fair_value": 17.185688, "relative_strength": -14.049537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.375488, "energy": 51.84678, "activity_lines": [ 18.773334, 19.251273, 21.775857, 22.97628 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }