{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8cd6a611-d30a-403a-9840-83068f0b4392", "symbol": "TQGM", "name": "TD Q Global Multifactor ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.674, "architecture_energy": 71.824, "architecture_maturity": 67.182, "architecture_confidence": 81.565, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.65, "rotation_up": 60.24, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 65.37, "rotation_down": 28.38, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.451334, 26.310355, 25.871125, 25.370599 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.91, "trend_reference": 24.785034, "distance_from_trend": 0.085736, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.55239, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.376302, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.413775, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.119559, "excess_performance": -0.000862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085736, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044875, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.376302, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034792, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004138, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018353, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119559, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.719355, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2000, "relative_activity": 0.072124, "balance": 2.719355, "dry_up": 0.278579, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014755, "annualized_volatility": 0.110883, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.260849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.785034, "fair_value_reference": 19.55239, "structural_low": 22.710869, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.017138, "positive_rate": 0.704545, "directional_follow_through": 0.704545, "median_excess_return": -0.002413, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.049347, "worst_return": -0.084359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.029383, "positive_rate": 0.928571, "directional_follow_through": 0.928571, "median_excess_return": -0.002271, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.124056, "worst_return": -0.038682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.082392, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.010387, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.142602, "worst_return": -0.090823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 24.250227, "fair_value": 19.176373, "relative_strength": 0.637069, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.132983, "energy": 89.603133, "activity_lines": [ 26.079969, 25.807981, 25.159179, 24.758849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.42, "volume": 23300, "typical_volume": 114840.0, "trend": 24.368271, "fair_value": 19.252651, "relative_strength": 1.314594, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.8266, "energy": 90.873539, "activity_lines": [ 26.227902, 25.971882, 25.328867, 24.898835 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.02, "volume": 12300, "typical_volume": 83475.0, "trend": 24.46818, "fair_value": 19.325091, "relative_strength": -0.045496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.181807, "energy": 74.560081, "activity_lines": [ 26.177282, 26.026417, 25.450105, 25.005398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.120001, "volume": 7700, "typical_volume": 52175.0, "trend": 24.570263, "fair_value": 19.398415, "relative_strength": 0.118969, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.183789, "energy": 63.808586, "activity_lines": [ 26.157334, 26.079738, 25.572417, 25.111967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.35, "volume": 8900, "typical_volume": 46085.0, "trend": 24.680938, "fair_value": 19.474063, "relative_strength": 1.472832, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.317416, "energy": 65.58926, "activity_lines": [ 26.222667, 26.153301, 25.702725, 25.226789 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.91, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 27730.0, "trend": 24.785034, "fair_value": 19.55239, "relative_strength": 0.413775, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.67409, "energy": 71.824426, "activity_lines": [ 26.451334, 26.310355, 25.871125, 25.370599 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }