{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8cd97599-ad6b-4ba9-9cdd-c5a3b9e0ab13",
    "symbol": "TAKP34",
    "name": "Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited",
    "exchange": "SAO",
    "country": "BR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^BVSP",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 54.019,
    "architecture_energy": 63.004,
    "architecture_maturity": 13.583,
    "architecture_confidence": 93.001,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 31.6,
        "rotation_up": 73.58,
        "upward_expansion": 46.67,
        "deceleration": 41.96,
        "rotation_down": 14.0,
        "downward_expansion": 24.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        86.916002,
        84.311637,
        83.148649,
        84.711363
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 89.980003,
    "trend_reference": 86.407633,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.041343,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 75.619036,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.189912,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 5.296054,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.020327,
    "excess_performance": 0.036722,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041343,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02234,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.189912,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.091208,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.052961,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.200908,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.020327,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 35.0,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 35.0,
      "dry_up": 4.125,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018166,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.235673,
      "from_high_reference": -0.055824,
      "from_low_reference": 0.29018
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 86.407633,
      "fair_value_reference": 75.619036,
      "structural_low": 76.32,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.014507,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.028161,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.09733,
        "worst_return": -0.116667,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.04973,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.0316,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.180213,
        "worst_return": -0.151,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.026232,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.084127,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.184298,
        "worst_return": -0.217894,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.062407,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.164205,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.250081,
        "worst_return": -0.189564,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.039103,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.023429,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.003671,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.054853,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.103189,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.10251,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.020488,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2025-10-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.042707,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-10-24",
        "end": "2025-12-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.04215,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-01-02",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.045454,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.032009,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.002924,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 67.493248,
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        "typical_volume": 19.35,
        "trend": 71.514289,
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        "relative_strength": -6.072529,
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      },
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        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2023-09-22",
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          87.901334,
          90.264656,
          90.250525,
          87.546623
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 81.919998,
        "volume": 1,
        "typical_volume": 13.9,
        "trend": 83.761969,
        "fair_value": 74.560594,
        "relative_strength": -14.794779,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -37.548228,
        "energy": 58.072058,
        "activity_lines": [
          85.234666,
          88.546098,
          89.620699,
          87.443129
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 80.720001,
        "volume": 2,
        "typical_volume": 14.0,
        "trend": 83.959779,
        "fair_value": 74.610251,
        "relative_strength": -12.556357,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -56.518751,
        "energy": 64.759702,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.06,
          86.789848,
          88.857625,
          87.246873
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 80.720001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 13.95,
        "trend": 84.157588,
        "fair_value": 74.66066,
        "relative_strength": -11.660364,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -47.497732,
        "energy": 80.929808,
        "activity_lines": [
          81.724,
          85.243429,
          88.081303,
          87.037855
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 81.120003,
        "volume": 1,
        "typical_volume": 12.65,
        "trend": 84.519445,
        "fair_value": 74.720854,
        "relative_strength": -9.527538,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.312672,
        "energy": 75.927379,
        "activity_lines": [
          81.104001,
          83.979568,
          87.348779,
          86.841882
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 76.32,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 12.65,
        "trend": 84.659242,
        "fair_value": 74.752187,
        "relative_strength": -12.008025,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -68.651102,
        "energy": 85.412366,
        "activity_lines": [
          79.440001,
          82.07491,
          86.180641,
          86.312885
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 76.32,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 12.65,
        "trend": 84.79904,
        "fair_value": 74.794208,
        "relative_strength": -12.622056,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -62.690999,
        "energy": 73.572682,
        "activity_lines": [
          78.160001,
          80.489455,
          85.05689,
          85.77487
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 76.32,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 12.15,
        "trend": 84.938838,
        "fair_value": 74.83779,
        "relative_strength": -10.885736,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -54.93235,
        "energy": 75.967801,
        "activity_lines": [
          77.253334,
          79.249091,
          83.977524,
          85.227835
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 82.32,
        "volume": 3,
        "typical_volume": 1.1,
        "trend": 85.278635,
        "fair_value": 74.925726,
        "relative_strength": -6.095522,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -66.762441,
        "energy": 67.248569,
        "activity_lines": [
          78.64,
          79.408364,
          83.518945,
          85.058877
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 82.32,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1.1,
        "trend": 85.540285,
        "fair_value": 75.017649,
        "relative_strength": -6.276807,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -54.094067,
        "energy": 58.089909,
        "activity_lines": [
          79.92,
          79.697455,
          83.105732,
          84.867998
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 82.32,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1.1,
        "trend": 85.702116,
        "fair_value": 75.117777,
        "relative_strength": -7.688184,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -46.413536,
        "energy": 39.836029,
        "activity_lines": [
          81.12,
          80.116364,
          82.737886,
          84.660237
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 82.32,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1.1,
        "trend": 85.848185,
        "fair_value": 75.217327,
        "relative_strength": -5.059254,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -35.56909,
        "energy": 48.080237,
        "activity_lines": [
          81.92,
          80.530909,
          82.415407,
          84.442036
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 82.32,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 0.75,
        "trend": 85.994254,
        "fair_value": 75.325544,
        "relative_strength": -4.802563,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -34.040081,
        "energy": 44.901374,
        "activity_lines": [
          82.32,
          80.938182,
          82.138294,
          84.214412
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 89.980003,
        "volume": 66,
        "typical_volume": 4.05,
        "trend": 86.263002,
        "fair_value": 75.474832,
        "relative_strength": 1.956465,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 26.121972,
        "energy": 43.317128,
        "activity_lines": [
          84.873334,
          82.709092,
          82.638041,
          84.471557
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 89.980003,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 4.0,
        "trend": 86.407633,
        "fair_value": 75.619036,
        "relative_strength": 5.296054,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 54.018855,
        "energy": 63.004457,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.916002,
          84.311637,
          83.148649,
          84.711363
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}