{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ce0d059-e6d3-435d-8f1a-e7c2996e2c04", "symbol": "PACB", "name": "Pacific Biosciences of California", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.991, "architecture_energy": 40.388, "architecture_maturity": 30.674, "architecture_confidence": 77.53, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.87, "rotation_up": 13.47, "upward_expansion": 5.81, "deceleration": 44.48, "rotation_down": 64.68, "downward_expansion": 76.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.336333, 1.418909, 1.424857, 1.444258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.185, "trend_reference": 1.545833, "distance_from_trend": -0.233423, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.903016, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.591804, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.128321, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.348901, "excess_performance": -0.536355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.233423, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103865, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.591804, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042981, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.361283, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108092, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.348901, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.739804, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43403636, "relative_activity": 1.427114, "balance": 0.739804, "dry_up": 1.113045, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.20803, "annualized_volatility": 0.790938, "from_high_reference": -0.565934, "from_low_reference": 0.087156 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.545833, "fair_value_reference": 2.903016, "structural_low": 1.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.033426, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": -0.029615, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.688525, "worst_return": -0.284404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.205358, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.245869, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.657812, "worst_return": -0.617737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.287671, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.287345, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.632812, "worst_return": -0.475594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.566792, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.602754, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.61875, "worst_return": -0.849421, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.261905, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.328236, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.742165, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.271233, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.204918, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014599, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.251908, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123762, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.402174, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", 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1.551333, 1.469636, 1.446095, 1.512323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.56, "volume": 24527543, "typical_volume": 29150348.8, "trend": 1.612667, "fair_value": 3.19292, "relative_strength": -17.571526, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.428439, "energy": 15.454058, "activity_lines": [ 1.572, 1.492727, 1.457286, 1.50772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.44, "volume": 23060813, "typical_volume": 29074415.15, "trend": 1.599333, "fair_value": 3.116381, "relative_strength": -20.387248, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.602244, "energy": 15.832672, "activity_lines": [ 1.545333, 1.494727, 1.457286, 1.496581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.36, "volume": 40975021, "typical_volume": 29367688.6, "trend": 1.585667, "fair_value": 3.038561, "relative_strength": -23.169261, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.409345, "energy": 11.537281, "activity_lines": [ 1.483333, 1.481636, 1.45081, 1.48114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.4, "volume": 27967137, "typical_volume": 29319799.4, "trend": 1.571, "fair_value": 2.969458, "relative_strength": -21.121795, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.554951, "energy": 17.985342, "activity_lines": [ 1.437333, 1.471455, 1.448238, 1.469161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.185, "volume": 43403636, "typical_volume": 30413565.1, "trend": 1.545833, "fair_value": 2.903016, "relative_strength": -36.128321, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.990754, "energy": 40.387894, "activity_lines": [ 1.336333, 1.418909, 1.424857, 1.444258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }