{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ce50e8e-915f-4d49-afa7-6ea0aaecfabe", "symbol": "SCWX", "name": "Scalable MSCI AC World Xtrackers UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.181, "architecture_energy": 60.245, "architecture_maturity": 62.628, "architecture_confidence": 71.514, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.26, "rotation_up": 50.24, "upward_expansion": 81.2, "deceleration": 71.4, "rotation_down": 29.16, "downward_expansion": 10.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.852267, 11.823273, 11.657467, 11.411643 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.076, "trend_reference": 11.120067, "distance_from_trend": 0.085965, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.180691, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186167, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.462224, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.143128, "excess_performance": 0.078488, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085965, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046135, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186167, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041718, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.044622, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062722, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.143128, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.12556, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 403087, "relative_activity": 0.812187, "balance": 3.12556, "dry_up": 1.158556, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019517, "annualized_volatility": 0.112363, "from_high_reference": -0.002478, "from_low_reference": 0.257524 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.120067, "fair_value_reference": 10.180691, "structural_low": 10.064, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034258, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 9.883, "volume": 270878, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 9.979, "volume": 599973, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 10.05, "volume": 824303, 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null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.782, "volume": 646173, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.676, "volume": 669009, "typical_volume": 504843.8, "trend": 11.073267, "fair_value": 10.157, "relative_strength": 4.00224, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.955373, "energy": 48.949204, "activity_lines": [ 11.758533, 11.763309, 11.583829, 11.346951 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.076, "volume": 403087, "typical_volume": 496298.0, "trend": 11.120067, "fair_value": 10.180691, "relative_strength": 4.462224, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.181476, "energy": 60.244725, "activity_lines": [ 11.852267, 11.823273, 11.657467, 11.411643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }