{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8ce86362-1bd2-4a53-ac0e-13cb8ecab8e0", "symbol": "OVL", "name": "OVERLAY SHARES LARGE CAP EQUITY ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 87.063, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.406, "architecture_energy": 44.388, "architecture_maturity": 33.791, "architecture_confidence": 67.394, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.66, "rotation_up": 48.26, "upward_expansion": 76.39, "deceleration": 65.45, "rotation_down": 25.13, "downward_expansion": 5.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.574206, 56.252297, 55.909086, 54.889719 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 58.16, "trend_reference": 53.696737, "distance_from_trend": 0.08312, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.351027, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.341606, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.086667, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.119712, "excess_performance": -0.005913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08312, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035086, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.341606, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013283, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000867, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014647, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119712, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.999823, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 793178, "relative_activity": 1.708855, "balance": 1.999823, "dry_up": 1.612888, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029303, "annualized_volatility": 0.158506, "from_high_reference": -0.004962, "from_low_reference": 0.249633 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.696737, "fair_value_reference": 43.351027, "structural_low": 47.59575, "invalidation": "A 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56.04639, 55.268481, 54.28865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.264205, "volume": 644579, "typical_volume": 396606.75, "trend": 53.3343, "fair_value": 43.023493, "relative_strength": -0.613768, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.18177, "energy": 30.530772, "activity_lines": [ 55.746544, 55.886467, 55.392974, 54.420656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.94, "volume": 869080, "typical_volume": 427651.2, "trend": 53.49522, "fair_value": 43.179879, "relative_strength": -0.507037, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.988488, "energy": 28.762993, "activity_lines": [ 55.833715, 55.862215, 55.560025, 54.588766 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.16, "volume": 793178, "typical_volume": 464157.6, "trend": 53.696737, "fair_value": 43.351027, "relative_strength": -0.086667, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.406153, "energy": 44.388325, "activity_lines": [ 56.574206, 56.252297, 55.909086, 54.889719 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }