{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8cec622b-babf-4237-9cff-7bf5beb510ad", "symbol": "ALMS", "name": "Alumis Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.919, "architecture_energy": 47.375, "architecture_maturity": 15.519, "architecture_confidence": 86.534, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.31, "rotation_up": 64.94, "upward_expansion": 82.98, "deceleration": 49.33, "rotation_down": 13.39, "downward_expansion": 7.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.042, 27.280364, 25.633143, 25.375677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 27.6, "trend_reference": 25.228667, "distance_from_trend": 0.093994, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.340631, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.236515, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 40.972982, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.053837, "excess_performance": -0.133616, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.093994, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.271788, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.236515, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013385, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.40973, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255551, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053837, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.498126, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4269792, "relative_activity": 0.664853, "balance": 1.498126, "dry_up": 0.794668, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121282, "annualized_volatility": 0.515458, "from_high_reference": -0.119617, "from_low_reference": 6.340426 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.228667, "fair_value_reference": 12.340631, "structural_low": 18.36, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.108292, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.071277, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.737018, "worst_return": -0.164702, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.609715, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.654423, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.609715, "worst_return": 1.609715, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.959241, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.79554, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.959241, "worst_return": 1.959241, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"typical_volume": 6804757.85, "trend": 23.749833, "fair_value": 11.907037, "relative_strength": 63.641243, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.156381, "energy": 63.777607, "activity_lines": [ 27.483333, 25.588182, 24.670429, 24.677484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.0, "volume": 4198407, "typical_volume": 6741641.85, "trend": 24.3175, "fair_value": 12.054679, "relative_strength": 58.350236, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.654949, "energy": 66.465517, "activity_lines": [ 27.931333, 26.261273, 25.005048, 24.951688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.25, "volume": 4966428, "typical_volume": 6653229.9, "trend": 24.960667, "fair_value": 12.201909, "relative_strength": 55.017548, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.877557, "energy": 63.24644, "activity_lines": [ 28.156667, 26.886545, 25.358238, 25.205398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.6, "volume": 4269792, "typical_volume": 6422158.85, "trend": 25.228667, "fair_value": 12.340631, "relative_strength": 40.972982, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.919084, "energy": 47.374991, "activity_lines": [ 28.042, 27.280364, 25.633143, 25.375677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }