{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8cf4b4e2-8c86-4da6-82f3-df2a292ec54f", "symbol": "FCC", "name": "Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 52.301, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.411, "architecture_energy": 15.648, "architecture_maturity": 77.261, "architecture_confidence": 74.431, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.38, "rotation_up": 18.78, "upward_expansion": 55.9, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 41.26, "downward_expansion": 21.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.49142, 11.698845, 11.626516, 11.493291 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.04, "trend_reference": 11.361106, "distance_from_trend": -0.028264, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.287619, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021937, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.405435, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028169, "excess_performance": -0.1526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028264, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015715, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.021937, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02442, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164054, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045495, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028169, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.396189, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115622, "relative_activity": 1.245882, "balance": 1.396189, "dry_up": 1.543619, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045981, "annualized_volatility": 0.247876, "from_high_reference": -0.141323, "from_low_reference": 0.093069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.361106, "fair_value_reference": 11.287619, "structural_low": 10.1, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.00741, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.015197, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.333653, "worst_return": -0.116949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.010661, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.001809, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.338967, "worst_return": -0.160296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.032436, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.081731, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.324693, "worst_return": -0.338975, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 12.491295, "volume": 242830, "typical_volume": 85825.55, "trend": 11.307106, "fair_value": 11.273346, "relative_strength": -3.745266, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.895116, "energy": 82.697664, "activity_lines": [ 12.126886, 11.88235, 11.574196, 11.445147 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.84, "volume": 268477, "typical_volume": 93079.55, "trend": 11.327107, "fair_value": 11.278816, "relative_strength": -7.41961, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.306829, "energy": 71.418772, "activity_lines": [ 12.108673, 11.90611, 11.620705, 11.479527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.88, "volume": 90592, "typical_volume": 88945.55, "trend": 11.35644, "fair_value": 11.284308, "relative_strength": -8.310475, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.163705, "energy": 68.649403, "activity_lines": [ 12.061243, 11.924416, 11.670832, 11.515197 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.34, "volume": 98321, "typical_volume": 90794.3, "trend": 11.363106, "fair_value": 11.286925, "relative_strength": -12.871043, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.036014, "energy": 23.770515, "activity_lines": [ 11.812976, 11.836903, 11.664389, 11.514137 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.04, "volume": 115622, "typical_volume": 92803.35, "trend": 11.361106, "fair_value": 11.287619, "relative_strength": -16.405435, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.41147, "energy": 15.647787, "activity_lines": [ 11.49142, 11.698845, 11.626516, 11.493291 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }