{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8cf96930-2be2-4ebb-a207-8267fc498a77",
    "symbol": "USSRF",
    "name": "UBS MSCI USA Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hEUR dis",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 76.581,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 74.034,
    "architecture_energy": 57.3,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.763,
    "architecture_confidence": 59.578,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.57,
        "rotation_up": 47.42,
        "upward_expansion": 72.15,
        "deceleration": 85.49,
        "rotation_down": 27.92,
        "downward_expansion": 22.15
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        33.515667,
        33.546455,
        33.043834,
        32.213561
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 34.360001,
    "trend_reference": 31.320694,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.097038,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 27.238215,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.261463,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.471621,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.14825,
    "excess_performance": -0.022642,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.097038,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040876,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.261463,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030323,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.034716,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008591,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.14825,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.105817,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 921,
      "relative_activity": 0.109876,
      "balance": 0.105817,
      "dry_up": 0.987718,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018156,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.145243,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.256537
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 31.320694,
      "fair_value_reference": 27.238215,
      "structural_low": 27.344999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.012223,
        "positive_rate": 0.538462,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.538462,
        "median_excess_return": -0.022633,
        "regime_survival": 0.307692,
        "best_return": 0.110233,
        "worst_return": -0.071047,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.078532,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.023763,
        "regime_survival": 0.125,
        "best_return": 0.136043,
        "worst_return": -0.123868,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.123357,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.01269,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.142096,
        "worst_return": -0.016191,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.075294,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.044372,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.286869,
        "worst_return": -0.238351,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-13",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.063643,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.02306,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.014158,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.04932,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.035437,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.018999,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.018609,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.007766,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-13",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.047154,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.02433,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.094815,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-05-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.038394,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.019687,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
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    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 3051.85,
        "trend": 29.673433,
        "fair_value": 26.128557,
        "relative_strength": -4.158292,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 21.05036,
        "energy": 26.064649,
        "activity_lines": [
          29.674,
          29.215727,
          29.452703,
          29.581583
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 31.125,
        "volume": 13351,
        "typical_volume": 3712.8,
        "trend": 29.740548,
        "fair_value": 26.200247,
        "relative_strength": -4.328491,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 32.485075,
        "energy": 42.858553,
        "activity_lines": [
          30.345667,
          29.571909,
          29.589178,
          29.675232
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 32.355,
        "volume": 6281,
        "typical_volume": 4013.55,
        "trend": 29.835042,
        "fair_value": 26.280512,
        "relative_strength": -2.612544,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.171719,
        "energy": 71.54977,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.183667,
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          29.838761,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 32.32,
        "volume": 7807,
        "typical_volume": 4403.9,
        "trend": 29.916909,
        "fair_value": 26.357449,
        "relative_strength": -2.32637,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 84.405427,
        "energy": 93.785759,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.730333,
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          30.074548,
          30.004226
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 7997.25,
        "trend": 29.99528,
        "fair_value": 26.432528,
        "relative_strength": -3.214491,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.935751,
        "energy": 91.003229,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 33.290001,
        "volume": 7276,
        "typical_volume": 8343.25,
        "trend": 30.09071,
        "fair_value": 26.510981,
        "relative_strength": -1.108711,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 88.324942,
        "energy": 95.301825,
        "activity_lines": [
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          30.367634
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 33.215,
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        "typical_volume": 8140.4,
        "trend": 30.222343,
        "fair_value": 26.587668,
        "relative_strength": -1.008655,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.849047,
        "energy": 91.964589,
        "activity_lines": [
          32.866334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 33.424999,
        "volume": 3168,
        "typical_volume": 8261.2,
        "trend": 30.348683,
        "fair_value": 26.660687,
        "relative_strength": -3.354692,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 79.343322,
        "energy": 91.082965,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 34.025002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 8050.1,
        "trend": 30.529574,
        "fair_value": 26.739839,
        "relative_strength": -3.981096,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.534385,
        "energy": 93.409562,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 33.52,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 7767.9,
        "trend": 30.656091,
        "fair_value": 26.816663,
        "relative_strength": -2.378374,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.190538,
        "energy": 86.322098,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.579667,
          33.123091,
          31.785643,
          31.205936
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 33.810001,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 7589.8,
        "trend": 30.772675,
        "fair_value": 26.892933,
        "relative_strength": -4.231675,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.704361,
        "energy": 85.989825,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.684667,
          33.336546,
          32.065596,
          31.409414
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 33.950001,
        "volume": 932,
        "typical_volume": 7625.5,
        "trend": 30.895088,
        "fair_value": 26.965555,
        "relative_strength": -3.291707,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.102151,
        "energy": 86.575235,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.801667,
          33.521273,
          32.341786,
          31.614403
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 33.205002,
        "volume": 4530,
        "typical_volume": 7759.0,
        "trend": 30.996655,
        "fair_value": 27.032398,
        "relative_strength": -3.900354,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.58843,
        "energy": 64.4355,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.621335,
          33.519183,
          32.527286,
          31.76343
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 33.005001,
        "volume": 8496,
        "typical_volume": 7460.7,
        "trend": 31.091555,
        "fair_value": 27.09796,
        "relative_strength": -4.162322,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.622538,
        "energy": 57.03926,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.389001,
          33.465274,
          32.67762,
          31.893001
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 32.889999,
        "volume": 19170,
        "typical_volume": 8408.9,
        "trend": 31.189764,
        "fair_value": 27.161875,
        "relative_strength": -4.976852,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.184317,
        "energy": 47.474095,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.186334,
          33.378001,
          32.800477,
          32.009029
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 34.360001,
        "volume": 921,
        "typical_volume": 8382.2,
        "trend": 31.320694,
        "fair_value": 27.238215,
        "relative_strength": -3.471621,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.034248,
        "energy": 57.300151,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.515667,
          33.546455,
          33.043834,
          32.213561
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}