{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8cfcc0ca-5caa-42b2-a8df-112ad97c974f", "symbol": "FFEB", "name": "FT VEST U.S. EQUITY BUFFER ETF - FEBRUARY", "exchange": "CBOE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.91, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.931, "architecture_energy": 68.922, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.232, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.01, "rotation_up": 63.65, "upward_expansion": 87.16, "deceleration": 54.73, "rotation_down": 26.06, "downward_expansion": 11.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.532433, 61.247364, 60.776919, 59.973873 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 62.2748, "trend_reference": 59.005627, "distance_from_trend": 0.055404, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.160902, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.241501, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.318824, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.085494, "excess_performance": -0.040131, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055404, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028749, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.241501, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003917, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033188, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00362, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085494, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.944334, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80732, "relative_activity": 0.426102, "balance": 0.944334, "dry_up": 0.362088, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011876, "annualized_volatility": 0.084042, "from_high_reference": -0.000565, "from_low_reference": 0.167288 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.005627, "fair_value_reference": 50.160902, "structural_low": 54.61, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.010837, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.004176, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.046422, "worst_return": -0.037896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.026107, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.006462, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.084609, "worst_return": -0.044605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.06968, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.018247, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.106996, "worst_return": -0.007541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-1.231249, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.895846, "energy": 67.47769, "activity_lines": [ 61.01454, 60.904895, 60.339357, 59.579283 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.35, "volume": 72615, "typical_volume": 192611.9, "trend": 58.832827, "fair_value": 50.017964, "relative_strength": -1.51053, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.07002, "energy": 62.720851, "activity_lines": [ 61.154353, 60.998685, 60.525861, 59.75181 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.2748, "volume": 80732, "typical_volume": 189466.15, "trend": 59.005627, "fair_value": 50.160902, "relative_strength": -3.318824, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.931305, "energy": 68.921725, "activity_lines": [ 61.532433, 61.247364, 60.776919, 59.973873 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }