{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8cff8cc3-6eae-4ae7-9648-60acb929f2b5", "symbol": "LMND", "name": "Lemonade, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.009, "architecture_energy": 37.661, "architecture_maturity": 29.138, "architecture_confidence": 65.525, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.32, "rotation_up": 12.48, "upward_expansion": 13.35, "deceleration": 58.6, "rotation_down": 62.66, "downward_expansion": 65.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 981.488005, 1033.92673, 1024.497952, 1034.797463 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 915.0, "trend_reference": 1085.617002, "distance_from_trend": -0.157161, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 682.477949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340703, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.384922, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.288386, "excess_performance": -0.23372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157161, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096087, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.340703, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122704, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203849, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0096, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288386, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.451865, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 201, "relative_activity": 0.19803, "balance": 0.451865, "dry_up": 0.699261, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118459, "annualized_volatility": 0.855168, "from_high_reference": -0.469353, "from_low_reference": 0.092159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1085.617002, "fair_value_reference": 682.477949, "structural_low": 837.789978, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.008906, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01269, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.112903, "worst_return": -0.157676, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.274315, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.260089, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.315789, "worst_return": -0.097782, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.434352, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.372847, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.673684, "worst_return": 0.195021, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155869, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.451782, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094902, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.112903, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { 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1071.133333, 1020.789089, 1020.703331, 1061.424409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1234.5, "volume": 416, "typical_volume": 1267.35, "trend": 1137.436003, "fair_value": 665.3625, "relative_strength": 8.781165, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.748606, "energy": 36.009144, "activity_lines": [ 1141.1, 1065.187271, 1041.443331, 1067.115634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1140.0, "volume": 229, "typical_volume": 1188.85, "trend": 1125.602669, "fair_value": 670.125321, "relative_strength": -0.195731, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.514072, "energy": 43.153199, "activity_lines": [ 1156.933333, 1087.867272, 1051.966188, 1067.281053 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1070.5, "volume": 1668, "typical_volume": 1253.75, "trend": 1116.272669, "fair_value": 674.649551, "relative_strength": -6.245962, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.841646, "energy": 34.214573, "activity_lines": [ 1139.733333, 1093.783636, 1054.660474, 1063.726042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 855.330017, "volume": 741, "typical_volume": 1064.5, "trend": 1102.450336, "fair_value": 678.254231, "relative_strength": -25.770078, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.0485, "energy": 20.15051, "activity_lines": [ 1045.843339, 1057.260003, 1036.488571, 1046.891033 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 915.0, "volume": 201, "typical_volume": 1015.0, "trend": 1085.617002, "fair_value": 682.477949, "relative_strength": -20.384922, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.009042, "energy": 37.661395, "activity_lines": [ 981.488005, 1033.92673, 1024.497952, 1034.797463 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }