{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d00a3e5-4dba-4ef1-8596-800626df2d8f", "symbol": "6498", "name": "KITZ Corporation", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-28", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.111, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.735, "architecture_energy": 54.561, "architecture_maturity": 10.379, "architecture_confidence": 88.062, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.85, "rotation_up": 14.27, "upward_expansion": 24.79, "deceleration": 51.15, "rotation_down": 72.36, "downward_expansion": 54.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 1993.066667, 2108.072727, 2201.435804, 2176.567351 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1918.0, "trend_reference": 2142.394332, "distance_from_trend": -0.10474, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1381.978415, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.387865, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.122084, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.112858, "excess_performance": -0.241119, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10474, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068317, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.387865, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.349741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171221, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148139, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.112858, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.101716, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2750500, "relative_activity": 2.160305, "balance": 0.101716, "dry_up": 1.639628, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105561, "annualized_volatility": 0.441007, "from_high_reference": -0.287537, "from_low_reference": 0.327259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2142.394332, "fair_value_reference": 1381.978415, "structural_low": 1682.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036034, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013076, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.068681, "worst_return": 0.009769, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.064091, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015824, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15183, "worst_return": -0.023649, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.34338, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.167789, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.686925, "worst_return": -0.000166, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"trend": 2142.394332, "fair_value": 1381.978415, "relative_strength": -17.122084, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.735145, "energy": 54.560978, "activity_lines": [ 1993.066667, 2108.072727, 2201.435804, 2176.567351 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }