{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d03eb5d-e9af-4956-b5fb-cf86394e334d", "symbol": "GAB", "name": "Gabetti Property Solutions S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.81, "architecture_energy": 81.173, "architecture_maturity": 99.907, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 23.53, "upward_expansion": 16.83, "deceleration": 41.93, "rotation_down": 67.79, "downward_expansion": 92.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.340667, 0.359309, 0.419057, 0.463213 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.319, "trend_reference": 0.520267, "distance_from_trend": -0.386853, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.615429, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.481663, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.467167, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.496845, "excess_performance": -0.667737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.386853, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142983, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.481663, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.305642, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.534672, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255165, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.496845, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.223721, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 607725, "relative_activity": 1.956349, "balance": 0.223721, "dry_up": 1.656468, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121534, "annualized_volatility": 0.563175, "from_high_reference": -0.550704, "from_low_reference": 0.063333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.520267, "fair_value_reference": 0.615429, "structural_low": 0.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.034091, "positive_rate": 0.297297, "directional_follow_through": 0.675676, "median_excess_return": -0.036331, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 0.265659, "worst_return": -0.27451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.065323, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.105959, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.154639, "worst_return": -0.283105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.145912, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.217787, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.546067, "worst_return": -0.341716, "sufficient": true }, 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069057, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010086, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.348665, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017065, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.375733, 0.419273, 0.477829, 0.51474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.374, "volume": 92217, "typical_volume": 237535.15, "trend": 0.5506, "fair_value": 0.625115, "relative_strength": -46.059607, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.87757, "energy": 87.411928, "activity_lines": [ 0.369267, 0.404873, 0.463952, 0.502766 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.367, "volume": 68722, "typical_volume": 227567.6, "trend": 0.5415, "fair_value": 0.621705, "relative_strength": -46.189911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.496741, "energy": 84.98287, "activity_lines": [ 0.369533, 0.392182, 0.450648, 0.49092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.324, "volume": 1289613, "typical_volume": 287262.95, "trend": 0.530967, "fair_value": 0.618532, "relative_strength": -52.093251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.348066, "energy": 73.291046, "activity_lines": [ 0.354533, 0.3746, 0.434433, 0.476888 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.319, "volume": 607725, "typical_volume": 310642.45, "trend": 0.520267, "fair_value": 0.615429, "relative_strength": -53.467167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.810336, "energy": 81.173131, "activity_lines": [ 0.340667, 0.359309, 0.419057, 0.463213 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }