{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d0826a1-7961-4972-9e58-b67b1a97962c", "symbol": "XUTC", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA Information Technology UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.209, "architecture_energy": 46.566, "architecture_maturity": 60.961, "architecture_confidence": 63.426, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.54, "rotation_up": 42.3, "upward_expansion": 70.75, "deceleration": 73.89, "rotation_down": 28.5, "downward_expansion": 11.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 166.374667, 165.585273, 163.69619, 157.560976 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 174.309998, "trend_reference": 150.094112, "distance_from_trend": 0.161338, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 114.412123, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.523527, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.153681, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.297637, "excess_performance": 0.246402, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.161338, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061377, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.523527, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01832, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.111537, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.297637, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.343021, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 175563, "relative_activity": 1.66773, "balance": 1.343021, "dry_up": 1.591795, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041902, "annualized_volatility": 0.242795, "from_high_reference": -0.003658, "from_low_reference": 0.426199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 150.094112, "fair_value_reference": 114.412123, "structural_low": 122.220001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.00379, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.023234, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.114922, "worst_return": -0.120341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.083094, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.045441, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162871, "worst_return": -0.155487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.23378, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.16566, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.26082, "worst_return": -0.011299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.125134, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.183298, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056456, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.038476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.439037, "energy": 49.343456, "activity_lines": [ 165.456668, 166.250183, 159.273453, 153.132985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 161.429993, "volume": 336964, "typical_volume": 109418.8, "trend": 147.527961, "fair_value": 112.653647, "relative_strength": 6.403717, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.470736, "energy": 37.854742, "activity_lines": [ 164.069332, 165.405454, 160.247142, 154.077952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 163.75, "volume": 77125, "typical_volume": 106822.15, "trend": 148.264904, "fair_value": 113.207083, "relative_strength": 6.387965, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.383743, "energy": 37.552493, "activity_lines": [ 163.733332, 164.967636, 161.304642, 155.124535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 160.660004, "volume": 80625, "typical_volume": 106942.55, "trend": 148.940277, "fair_value": 113.75511, "relative_strength": 2.98861, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.514231, "energy": 29.874939, "activity_lines": [ 162.762001, 163.983819, 161.921667, 155.924219 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 174.309998, "volume": 175563, "typical_volume": 105270.65, "trend": 150.094112, "fair_value": 114.412123, "relative_strength": 11.153681, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.208886, "energy": 46.566403, "activity_lines": [ 166.374667, 165.585273, 163.69619, 157.560976 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }