{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8d0ac257-332b-4803-a278-152cf6bf8845",
    "symbol": "RNEM",
    "name": "EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY SELECT ETF",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 85.361,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 46.871,
    "architecture_energy": 59.582,
    "architecture_maturity": 4.141,
    "architecture_confidence": 50.924,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 27.48,
        "rotation_up": 71.48,
        "upward_expansion": 61.51,
        "deceleration": 21.47,
        "rotation_down": 16.83,
        "downward_expansion": 19.84
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        56.678273,
        56.097613,
        55.686187,
        55.646144
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 57.3215,
    "trend_reference": 55.827542,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.02676,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 51.20776,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119391,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -9.483182,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.008193,
    "excess_performance": -0.195646,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02676,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.002005,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.119391,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.002823,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.094832,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.049648,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008193,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.323422,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2229,
      "relative_activity": 0.426664,
      "balance": 0.323422,
      "dry_up": 0.521702,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.019681,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.164174,
      "from_high_reference": -0.028573,
      "from_low_reference": 0.222207
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 55.827542,
      "fair_value_reference": 51.20776,
      "structural_low": 46.9,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.014496,
        "positive_rate": 0.833333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.833333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.015196,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.037387,
        "worst_return": -0.034476,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.034425,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.039496,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.085273,
        "worst_return": -0.043227,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.064107,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.130796,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.131785,
        "worst_return": -0.129429,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.05627,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.149175,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.07043,
        "worst_return": -0.065784,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-12-27",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.004123,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.015855,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.046381,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.074582,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.017234,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.023499,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-26",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00279,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.034865,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.00885,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.053871,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-17",
        "end": "2026-06-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.085929,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-06-12",
        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.004777,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-07-10",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.021943,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 7700.3,
        "trend": 55.542105,
        "fair_value": 50.21057,
        "relative_strength": -9.529731,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.128911,
        "energy": 27.007039,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 55.563626,
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        "typical_volume": 7610.5,
        "trend": 55.603743,
        "fair_value": 50.289344,
        "relative_strength": -11.794497,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.777819,
        "energy": 26.877237,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 56.531307,
        "volume": 1432,
        "typical_volume": 7497.85,
        "trend": 55.728612,
        "fair_value": 50.374796,
        "relative_strength": -14.447961,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.408852,
        "energy": 23.806636,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 54.489817,
        "volume": 1532,
        "typical_volume": 7510.65,
        "trend": 55.727659,
        "fair_value": 50.446165,
        "relative_strength": -16.818288,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 5.062116,
        "energy": 3.451089,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.77196,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 54.445795,
        "volume": 8530,
        "typical_volume": 7697.1,
        "trend": 55.711916,
        "fair_value": 50.51715,
        "relative_strength": -17.372093,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -24.166073,
        "energy": 16.735679,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 54.335691,
        "volume": 7891,
        "typical_volume": 7936.5,
        "trend": 55.715844,
        "fair_value": 50.58458,
        "relative_strength": -19.389143,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.2471,
        "energy": 31.646958,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 53.461917,
        "volume": 20507,
        "typical_volume": 8774.8,
        "trend": 55.677056,
        "fair_value": 50.641043,
        "relative_strength": -16.502671,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.098123,
        "energy": 50.06964,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 55.255574,
        "volume": 3238,
        "typical_volume": 8437.45,
        "trend": 55.670235,
        "fair_value": 50.703983,
        "relative_strength": -15.195392,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -50.774908,
        "energy": 45.072704,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 1297,
        "typical_volume": 7573.35,
        "trend": 55.703445,
        "fair_value": 50.774555,
        "relative_strength": -16.519793,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -46.405446,
        "energy": 27.054533,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 54.8858,
        "volume": 3130,
        "typical_volume": 7559.35,
        "trend": 55.69114,
        "fair_value": 50.836994,
        "relative_strength": -13.207727,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -34.821198,
        "energy": 18.01431,
        "activity_lines": [
          54.907359,
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          55.1796,
          55.475421
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 54.9916,
        "volume": 2326,
        "typical_volume": 7420.2,
        "trend": 55.686682,
        "fair_value": 50.901472,
        "relative_strength": -13.366306,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -30.883032,
        "energy": 14.266511,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.006041,
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          55.130029,
          55.430289
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 55.9731,
        "volume": 2693,
        "typical_volume": 7420.65,
        "trend": 55.724082,
        "fair_value": 50.961646,
        "relative_strength": -12.997875,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -15.774027,
        "energy": 12.718701,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.388163,
          55.046316,
          55.187969,
          55.448768
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 55.7864,
        "volume": 2318,
        "typical_volume": 7417.25,
        "trend": 55.736949,
        "fair_value": 51.017556,
        "relative_strength": -9.202514,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -15.945098,
        "energy": 12.725834,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.540639,
          55.190946,
          55.240442,
          55.452788
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 55.7385,
        "volume": 2975,
        "typical_volume": 7321.25,
        "trend": 55.740659,
        "fair_value": 51.065176,
        "relative_strength": -7.5225,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -5.311024,
        "energy": 12.494234,
        "activity_lines": [
          55.64176,
          55.34041,
          55.299799,
          55.452889
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 57.2013,
        "volume": 3380,
        "typical_volume": 5417.75,
        "trend": 55.786679,
        "fair_value": 51.134177,
        "relative_strength": -5.361061,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 36.093846,
        "energy": 44.446415,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.217167,
          55.733134,
          55.494808,
          55.547123
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 57.3215,
        "volume": 2229,
        "typical_volume": 5224.25,
        "trend": 55.827542,
        "fair_value": 51.20776,
        "relative_strength": -9.483182,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 46.871425,
        "energy": 59.581765,
        "activity_lines": [
          56.678273,
          56.097613,
          55.686187,
          55.646144
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}