{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d0da20e-9bf6-49bd-b264-4d139318f40a", "symbol": "FRIO3", "name": "Metalfrio Solutions S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 55.561, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.494, "architecture_energy": 62.686, "architecture_maturity": 66.428, "architecture_confidence": 63.223, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.67, "rotation_up": 43.92, "upward_expansion": 65.5, "deceleration": 74.0, "rotation_down": 29.96, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 205.0, 205.0, 197.959427, 191.836514 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 205.0, "trend_reference": 187.583997, "distance_from_trend": 0.092844, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 210.495513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026108, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.391016, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.025, "excess_performance": 0.082048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092844, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00592, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026108, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109842, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01391, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.313556, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014942, "annualized_volatility": 0.303668, "from_high_reference": -0.18, "from_low_reference": 0.220383 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 187.583997, "fair_value_reference": 210.495513, "structural_low": 170.179993, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.039516, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.021423, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.085145, "worst_return": -0.21423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.070812, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.121257, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129032, "worst_return": -0.608571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.353141, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.422814, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.148217, "worst_return": -0.558065, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.232502, 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"end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001693, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.154033, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085145, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078498, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.116466, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"energy": 79.582293, "activity_lines": [ 205.0, 196.396362, 185.804282, 184.696319 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 205.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 105.0, "trend": 185.64833, "fair_value": 205.438398, "relative_strength": -6.545493, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.329168, "energy": 88.486271, "activity_lines": [ 205.0, 199.383272, 188.244664, 185.934082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 205.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 105.0, "trend": 185.481996, "fair_value": 206.462372, "relative_strength": -7.940913, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.973954, "energy": 68.03681, "activity_lines": [ 205.0, 201.737091, 190.519235, 187.182577 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 205.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 105.0, "trend": 186.715996, "fair_value": 207.486411, "relative_strength": -5.221076, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.561672, "energy": 67.378233, "activity_lines": [ 205.0, 203.457818, 192.627998, 188.441803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 205.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 105.0, "trend": 187.915996, "fair_value": 208.511539, "relative_strength": -4.374036, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.0576, "energy": 66.496657, "activity_lines": [ 205.0, 204.545455, 194.570951, 189.621416 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 205.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 105.0, "trend": 187.749997, "fair_value": 209.505129, "relative_strength": -5.412967, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.96149, "energy": 63.817326, "activity_lines": [ 205.0, 205.0, 196.348094, 190.72361 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 205.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 105.0, "trend": 187.583997, "fair_value": 210.495513, "relative_strength": -1.391016, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.493843, "energy": 62.685524, "activity_lines": [ 205.0, 205.0, 197.959427, 191.836514 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }