{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d12cd2a-c49b-4916-8602-96180e4947e4", "symbol": "688319", "name": "Chengdu Olymvax Biopharmaceuticals Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 55.407, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.402, "architecture_energy": 39.26, "architecture_maturity": 31.923, "architecture_confidence": 55.887, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.57, "rotation_up": 19.36, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.46, "rotation_down": 66.75, "downward_expansion": 42.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.965333, 31.437818, 33.077714, 32.396065 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.23, "trend_reference": 31.065667, "distance_from_trend": -0.12347, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.362998, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.482873, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.561393, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.130345, "excess_performance": 0.173548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12347, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100761, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.482873, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.54792, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045614, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.361909, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130345, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.717355, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49395069, "relative_activity": 1.093748, "balance": 0.717355, "dry_up": 1.51473, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.209921, "annualized_volatility": 0.839623, "from_high_reference": -0.393541, "from_low_reference": 0.362181 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.065667, "fair_value_reference": 18.362998, "structural_low": 20.41, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.044471, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.021729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.044471, "worst_return": -0.044471, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.35637, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.398662, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.35637, "worst_return": 0.35637, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.328125, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.270315, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.328125, "worst_return": -0.328125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"typical_volume": 44111848.25, "trend": 31.13, "fair_value": 18.282495, "relative_strength": 11.929504, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.578877, "energy": 34.818641, "activity_lines": [ 37.999334, 37.441819, 35.535381, 33.612387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.629999, "volume": 62255532, "typical_volume": 44991939.6, "trend": 31.139667, "fair_value": 18.303902, "relative_strength": -7.051828, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.688042, "energy": 6.515682, "activity_lines": [ 33.776667, 35.332, 34.769857, 33.257549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.559999, "volume": 65699356, "typical_volume": 46230242.1, "trend": 31.003333, "fair_value": 18.309691, "relative_strength": -22.144523, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.088561, "energy": 38.667505, "activity_lines": [ 28.868666, 32.729455, 33.630571, 32.639505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.23, "volume": 49395069, "typical_volume": 45161268.6, "trend": 31.065667, "fair_value": 18.362998, "relative_strength": -4.561393, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.402429, "energy": 39.259612, "activity_lines": [ 26.965333, 31.437818, 33.077714, 32.396065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }