{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d19605f-2bff-406b-b55d-c39f63cb8f71", "symbol": "TSLX", "name": "Sixth Street Specialty Lending Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 81.183, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 15.032, "architecture_energy": 18.463, "architecture_maturity": 13.775, "architecture_confidence": 61.963, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.67, "rotation_up": 38.53, "upward_expansion": 30.19, "deceleration": 43.68, "rotation_down": 17.83, "downward_expansion": 43.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.758, 17.421305, 17.349513, 17.444058 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 19.1, "trend_reference": 17.832678, "distance_from_trend": 0.071067, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.283914, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.044634, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.414852, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.002939, "excess_performance": -0.128564, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.071067, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056106, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.044634, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074787, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118796, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002939, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.434082, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2855273, "relative_activity": 0.873691, "balance": 1.434082, "dry_up": 0.746493, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04945, "annualized_volatility": 0.316111, "from_high_reference": -0.155394, "from_low_reference": 0.190773 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.832678, "fair_value_reference": 18.283914, "structural_low": 16.04, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.006095, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.009285, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.062685, "worst_return": -0.210478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.048886, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.037933, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.116935, "worst_return": -0.128364, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.07521, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.025013, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.223994, "worst_return": -0.159514, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.267145, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.08379, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.281665, "worst_return": 0.252624, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.075096, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.094487, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147984, "active": false 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"tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015886, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06879, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060424, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.026644, "volume": 1426039, "typical_volume": 1852065.05, "trend": 13.663691, "fair_value": 13.064472, "relative_strength": 5.570191, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"energy": 18.930819, "activity_lines": [ 17.093333, 16.985643, 17.202408, 17.420176 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.16, "volume": 2450758, "typical_volume": 3428112.5, "trend": 17.888057, "fair_value": 18.258761, "relative_strength": -18.181104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.478511, "energy": 15.14045, "activity_lines": [ 17.111333, 17.031005, 17.18414, 17.365868 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.1, "volume": 2855273, "typical_volume": 3268057.45, "trend": 17.832678, "fair_value": 18.283914, "relative_strength": -11.414852, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.031615, "energy": 18.462882, "activity_lines": [ 17.758, 17.421305, 17.349513, 17.444058 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }