{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d1ecff0-7d17-4134-963f-853b73110e8c", "symbol": "PFD", "name": "Premier Foods plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.63, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -10.986, "architecture_energy": 20.54, "architecture_maturity": 6.579, "architecture_confidence": 49.761, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.61, "rotation_up": 18.61, "upward_expansion": 17.8, "deceleration": 56.29, "rotation_down": 50.44, "downward_expansion": 38.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 192.566667, 195.531533, 197.731801, 196.80308 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 193.5, "trend_reference": 194.911846, "distance_from_trend": -0.007244, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 173.942709, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112435, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.616826, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.007692, "excess_performance": -0.058928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007244, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040714, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112435, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089158, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056168, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058167, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007692, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.559645, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8097031, "relative_activity": 1.277659, "balance": 0.559645, "dry_up": 1.089802, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064931, "annualized_volatility": 0.203712, "from_high_reference": -0.08539, "from_low_reference": 0.171308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 194.911846, "fair_value_reference": 173.942709, "structural_low": 173.399994, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.020467, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.002928, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.146825, "worst_return": -0.089744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.019751, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.012539, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.132143, "worst_return": -0.141867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.047794, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.022146, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.09135, "worst_return": -0.060354, 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196.678514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 199.6, "volume": 7976899, "typical_volume": 6744667.4, "trend": 192.261846, "fair_value": 172.259226, "relative_strength": -0.222425, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.081931, "energy": 22.497419, "activity_lines": [ 201.932067, 201.780255, 199.746189, 197.208717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 191.3, "volume": 5095474, "typical_volume": 6722680.2, "trend": 192.845179, "fair_value": 172.652378, "relative_strength": -5.018859, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.259732, "energy": 10.887865, "activity_lines": [ 198.471367, 199.770804, 199.183069, 197.146663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 187.2, "volume": 4949630, "typical_volume": 6517601.15, "trend": 193.325179, "fair_value": 173.025658, "relative_strength": -7.886949, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.157106, "energy": 8.706862, "activity_lines": [ 194.4, 197.209846, 198.258519, 196.782458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 194.3, "volume": 9483897, "typical_volume": 6746851.1, "trend": 194.155179, "fair_value": 173.486747, "relative_strength": -5.242938, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.191949, "energy": 15.550247, "activity_lines": [ 193.2, 196.339176, 198.036827, 196.845349 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 193.5, "volume": 8097031, "typical_volume": 6337395.5, "trend": 194.911846, "fair_value": 173.942709, "relative_strength": -5.616826, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.985657, "energy": 20.539592, "activity_lines": [ 192.566667, 195.531533, 197.731801, 196.80308 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }