{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d22c484-aee7-4f23-aecc-726d354f994f", "symbol": "WCT", "name": "Wellchange Holdings Company Limited", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.857, "architecture_energy": 48.907, "architecture_maturity": 77.961, "architecture_confidence": 94.046, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.1, "rotation_up": 26.35, "upward_expansion": 7.13, "deceleration": 57.61, "rotation_down": 54.09, "downward_expansion": 82.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.890873, 1.015356, 1.317693, 1.911773 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.84, "trend_reference": 3.098546, "distance_from_trend": -0.728905, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.213366, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.981823, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -90.142612, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.869057, "excess_performance": -1.056511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.728905, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.513447, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.981823, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021991, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.901426, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080733, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.869057, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.825057, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 249691, "relative_activity": 0.026011, "balance": 0.825057, "dry_up": 0.046813, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.929647, "annualized_volatility": 1.049205, "from_high_reference": -0.9664, "from_low_reference": 0.264299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.098546, "fair_value_reference": 46.213366, "structural_low": 0.6644, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.267442, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.311232, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.156028, "worst_return": -0.339793, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.618519, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.805797, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.618519, "worst_return": -0.618519, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.688889, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 191.0, "volume": 5009965, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 295.0, "volume": 9267418, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.8681, "volume": 935833, "typical_volume": 9580577.0, "trend": 3.609306, "fair_value": 47.168993, "relative_strength": -89.776682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.984094, "energy": 54.085445, "activity_lines": [ 1.0407, 1.16402, 1.509058, 2.255557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8022, "volume": 238670, "typical_volume": 9588177.8, "trend": 3.361546, "fair_value": 46.686005, "relative_strength": -90.360885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.759404, "energy": 52.474431, "activity_lines": [ 0.94756, 1.078635, 1.404176, 2.074453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.84, "volume": 249691, "typical_volume": 9599279.8, "trend": 3.098546, "fair_value": 46.213366, "relative_strength": -90.142612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.857201, "energy": 48.907374, "activity_lines": [ 0.890873, 1.015356, 1.317693, 1.911773 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }