{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d230eab-6692-4fe7-8a4e-84deecaf8d26", "symbol": "300175", "name": "Lontrue Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.77, "architecture_energy": 19.783, "architecture_maturity": 55.456, "architecture_confidence": 74.457, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.74, "rotation_up": 27.34, "upward_expansion": 14.43, "deceleration": 46.45, "rotation_down": 24.52, "downward_expansion": 59.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.602, 5.433273, 5.656286, 5.836989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.82, "trend_reference": 6.037667, "distance_from_trend": -0.036051, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.822436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.000418, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.180668, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.089202, "excess_performance": -0.096602, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036051, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029938, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.000418, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141554, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061807, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037743, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089202, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.874041, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41257984, "relative_activity": 1.319113, "balance": 0.874041, "dry_up": 1.443599, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096352, "annualized_volatility": 0.487709, "from_high_reference": -0.175637, "from_low_reference": 0.304933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.037667, "fair_value_reference": 5.822436, "structural_low": 4.46, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.03675, "positive_rate": 0.9375, "directional_follow_through": 0.0625, "median_excess_return": 0.059068, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.545283, "worst_return": -0.03301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.059701, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.045903, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.399614, "worst_return": -0.061275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.100242, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.02845, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.608187, "worst_return": -0.10705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -8.374356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.304165, "energy": 29.212501, "activity_lines": [ 5.334667, 5.318, 5.68319, 5.872925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.69, "volume": 46718622, "typical_volume": 30144606.35, "trend": 6.031667, "fair_value": 5.810705, "relative_strength": -3.537571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.197825, "energy": 24.734809, "activity_lines": [ 5.486, 5.354545, 5.661619, 5.850645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.82, "volume": 41257984, "typical_volume": 31277075.55, "trend": 6.037667, "fair_value": 5.822436, "relative_strength": -6.180668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.769951, "energy": 19.782501, "activity_lines": [ 5.602, 5.433273, 5.656286, 5.836989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }