{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d2f3909-ed0d-489a-ada8-a9bdcbfd0b67", "symbol": "RRR", "name": "Revolver Resources Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.073, "architecture_energy": 71.771, "architecture_maturity": 22.63, "architecture_confidence": 79.496, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.24, "rotation_up": 8.64, "upward_expansion": 14.43, "deceleration": 37.56, "rotation_down": 77.56, "downward_expansion": 90.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.060467, 0.065891, 0.067967, 0.069492 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.056, "trend_reference": 0.073, "distance_from_trend": -0.232877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.067205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16673, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.219365, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.325301, "excess_performance": -0.389007, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.232877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058065, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16673, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094287, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.312194, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.279749, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.325301, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.519185, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1371556, "relative_activity": 1.968223, "balance": 0.519185, "dry_up": 1.386868, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.160714, "annualized_volatility": 0.650302, "from_high_reference": -0.490909, "from_low_reference": 0.076923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.073, "fair_value_reference": 0.067205, "structural_low": 0.052, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.023158, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.032632, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.95, "worst_return": -0.305263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.136364, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.114887, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.32, "worst_return": -0.479167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.400526, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.410228, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.090909, "worst_return": -0.486486, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.430769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.162162, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.527273, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164706, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.259259, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.175676, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050847, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.15, "volume": 78819, "typical_volume": 660215.15, "trend": 0.168167, "fair_value": 0.2917, "relative_strength": -30.349053, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.668123, "energy": 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"down", "direction": -8.730978, "energy": 12.728748, "activity_lines": [ 0.074467, 0.073564, 0.071595, 0.073299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.067, "volume": 418892, "typical_volume": 951194.95, "trend": 0.075933, "fair_value": 0.069442, "relative_strength": -13.417689, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.208442, "energy": 23.917983, "activity_lines": [ 0.071533, 0.072791, 0.071186, 0.072688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.061, "volume": 1072530, "typical_volume": 701613.95, "trend": 0.0752, "fair_value": 0.068776, "relative_strength": -20.957389, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.652433, "energy": 38.520387, "activity_lines": [ 0.0672, 0.070945, 0.07029, 0.071725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.059, "volume": 1002776, "typical_volume": 684086.25, "trend": 0.0744, "fair_value": 0.068, "relative_strength": -25.289276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.082183, "energy": 58.908425, "activity_lines": [ 0.0638, 0.0687, 0.069243, 0.07068 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.056, "volume": 1371556, "typical_volume": 696849.75, "trend": 0.073, "fair_value": 0.067205, "relative_strength": -31.219365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.073231, "energy": 71.770765, "activity_lines": [ 0.060467, 0.065891, 0.067967, 0.069492 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }