{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d306538-d49d-4b6e-bac5-10882aab22c1", "symbol": "SPAGO", "name": "Spago Nanomedical AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.705, "architecture_energy": 13.888, "architecture_maturity": 31.835, "architecture_confidence": 65.262, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.12, "rotation_up": 17.19, "upward_expansion": 6.87, "deceleration": 54.61, "rotation_down": 34.13, "downward_expansion": 61.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1151, 0.114836, 0.116154, 0.116869 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.116, "trend_reference": 0.118723, "distance_from_trend": -0.022937, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.230536, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.496825, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.090435, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.075697, "excess_performance": -0.137192, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022937, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016293, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.496825, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065239, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290904, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133788, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.075697, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.153123, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1548454, "relative_activity": 0.806249, "balance": 0.153123, "dry_up": 0.695311, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154579, "annualized_volatility": 0.483009, "from_high_reference": -0.686486, "from_low_reference": 0.377672 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.118723, "fair_value_reference": 0.230536, "structural_low": 0.09, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.0181, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": -0.015665, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.308333, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.167155, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.180602, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.48248, "worst_return": -0.431174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.205882, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.23145, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.09127, "worst_return": -0.489204, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068966, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.392857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101266, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 0.237863, "relative_strength": -35.473267, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.683608, "energy": 20.877183, "activity_lines": [ 0.113633, 0.11458, 0.116368, 0.117421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1145, "volume": 870171, "typical_volume": 1960936.95, "trend": 0.118573, "fair_value": 0.23463, "relative_strength": -31.786316, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.433193, "energy": 17.093135, "activity_lines": [ 0.113767, 0.114122, 0.116144, 0.117183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1165, "volume": 632111, "typical_volume": 1960901.6, "trend": 0.11879, "fair_value": 0.232395, "relative_strength": -29.734296, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.917745, "energy": 13.460027, "activity_lines": [ 0.114767, 0.114455, 0.116164, 0.117049 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.116, "volume": 1548454, "typical_volume": 1920564.75, "trend": 0.118723, "fair_value": 0.230536, "relative_strength": -29.090435, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.705047, "energy": 13.888167, "activity_lines": [ 0.1151, 0.114836, 0.116154, 0.116869 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }