{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d3285b8-c379-497d-b75f-b0f7691f40b2", "symbol": "INXG", "name": "iShares \u00a3 Index-Linked Gilts UCITS ETF GBP (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 50.66, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.507, "architecture_energy": 22.315, "architecture_maturity": 16.883, "architecture_confidence": 77.12, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.32, "rotation_up": 12.87, "upward_expansion": 9.78, "deceleration": 52.75, "rotation_down": 49.68, "downward_expansion": 64.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.5972, 12.634145, 12.633532, 12.64486 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.62, "trend_reference": 12.66591, "distance_from_trend": -0.003625, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.826234, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.016079, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.531202, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004616, "excess_performance": -0.166275, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003625, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007323, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.016079, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000425, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135312, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029532, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004616, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.326494, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10794, "relative_activity": 0.490353, "balance": 0.326494, "dry_up": 0.920253, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014261, "annualized_volatility": 0.088119, "from_high_reference": -0.039748, "from_low_reference": 0.073768 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.66591, "fair_value_reference": 12.826234, "structural_low": 12.253501, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.013001, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040503, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.043512, "worst_return": -0.079513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.050296, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.10743, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.049383, "worst_return": -0.201618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012106, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.13452, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.024995, "worst_return": -0.288089, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018446, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007256, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032272, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012017, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008251, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", 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22.090904, "activity_lines": [ 12.7044, 12.678753, 12.651424, 12.661807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.676, "volume": 14160, "typical_volume": 20898.05, "trend": 12.66234, "fair_value": 12.834086, "relative_strength": -11.184115, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.413739, "energy": 15.814009, "activity_lines": [ 12.697067, 12.683881, 12.652273, 12.663241 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.582, "volume": 6970, "typical_volume": 20474.4, "trend": 12.66847, "fair_value": 12.829507, "relative_strength": -11.381078, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.450926, "energy": 6.793874, "activity_lines": [ 12.6588, 12.671527, 12.645674, 12.658057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.514, "volume": 49105, "typical_volume": 21970.75, "trend": 12.670083, "fair_value": 12.826554, "relative_strength": -12.074628, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.167666, "energy": 23.137879, "activity_lines": [ 12.603867, 12.640873, 12.63401, 12.648091 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.62, "volume": 10794, "typical_volume": 22012.7, "trend": 12.66591, "fair_value": 12.826234, "relative_strength": -13.531202, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.507192, "energy": 22.314992, "activity_lines": [ 12.5972, 12.634145, 12.633532, 12.64486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }