{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d3a6ef1-9784-48be-b4dd-e268fb014e12", "symbol": "5PO", "name": "Hiap Tong Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.644, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.557, "architecture_energy": 45.051, "architecture_maturity": 10.557, "architecture_confidence": 85.97, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.49, "rotation_up": 15.26, "upward_expansion": 6.44, "deceleration": 46.01, "rotation_down": 65.17, "downward_expansion": 84.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.104122, 0.105622, 0.108724, 0.110625 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.103, "trend_reference": 0.112196, "distance_from_trend": -0.081962, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.096411, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068348, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.42893, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.037383, "excess_performance": -0.192218, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081962, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028062, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068348, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175404, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.194289, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.25992, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.037383, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 735200, "relative_activity": 0.973659, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.324862, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076715, "annualized_volatility": 0.237468, "from_high_reference": -0.269504, "from_low_reference": 0.271605 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.112196, "fair_value_reference": 0.096411, "structural_low": 0.081, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.011235, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.013779, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.191771, "worst_return": -0.087496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.045457, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.030052, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.23334, "worst_return": -0.053759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.099139, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.025402, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.299998, "worst_return": -0.053759, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038835, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130841, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.212766, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008772, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080357, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034188, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018519, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027027, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027786, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00952, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.127282, "volume": 26285700, "typical_volume": 20908620.0, "trend": 0.094549, "fair_value": 0.068509, "relative_strength": 54.650306, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"trend": 0.11173, "fair_value": 0.097006, "relative_strength": -15.504289, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.34669, "energy": 47.473126, "activity_lines": [ 0.107039, 0.10851, 0.111191, 0.112234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.10399, "volume": 82100, "typical_volume": 922860.0, "trend": 0.111963, "fair_value": 0.096832, "relative_strength": -17.884638, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.283307, "energy": 61.392109, "activity_lines": [ 0.105776, 0.107383, 0.110338, 0.111735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.10399, "volume": 153800, "typical_volume": 766640.0, "trend": 0.112229, "fair_value": 0.096598, "relative_strength": -18.064038, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.265878, "energy": 57.198527, "activity_lines": [ 0.104981, 0.106492, 0.109547, 0.111221 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.103, "volume": 735200, "typical_volume": 755090.0, "trend": 0.112196, "fair_value": 0.096411, "relative_strength": -19.42893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.557289, "energy": 45.050647, "activity_lines": [ 0.104122, 0.105622, 0.108724, 0.110625 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }