{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d45082c-978c-429c-8c77-7dedd6c09e7a", "symbol": "002584", "name": "Xilong Scientific Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.487, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.769, "architecture_energy": 39.958, "architecture_maturity": 21.227, "architecture_confidence": 67.893, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.53, "rotation_up": 11.22, "upward_expansion": 5.22, "deceleration": 56.76, "rotation_down": 65.5, "downward_expansion": 73.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.624, 8.108727, 8.131857, 8.169075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.12, "trend_reference": 8.350333, "distance_from_trend": -0.027584, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.960547, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02003, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.931896, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.097778, "excess_performance": -0.105178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027584, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027448, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02003, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026675, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089319, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186315, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097778, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.115916, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 176505777, "relative_activity": 1.239196, "balance": 1.115916, "dry_up": 1.556301, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126847, "annualized_volatility": 0.465939, "from_high_reference": -0.245353, "from_low_reference": 0.303371 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.350333, "fair_value_reference": 7.960547, "structural_low": 6.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.019451, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.007474, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.280959, "worst_return": -0.276507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.021016, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008368, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.317881, "worst_return": -0.139647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.041606, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.010495, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.081012, "worst_return": -0.115079, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.76, "volume": 441682814, "typical_volume": 113385236.35, "trend": 8.595333, "fair_value": 7.906284, "relative_strength": -9.915299, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.588606, "energy": 48.203097, "activity_lines": [ 9.207333, 8.743455, 8.39181, 8.430796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.62, "volume": 267608444, "typical_volume": 122841217.15, "trend": 8.537667, "fair_value": 7.920763, "relative_strength": -13.071359, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.731706, "energy": 21.541082, "activity_lines": [ 8.739333, 8.587636, 8.329333, 8.367871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.96, "volume": 246046390, "typical_volume": 130397759.15, "trend": 8.457, "fair_value": 7.930566, "relative_strength": -20.2031, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.737615, "energy": 25.919064, "activity_lines": [ 8.072, 8.320364, 8.210762, 8.266086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.22, "volume": 196530500, "typical_volume": 136998492.6, "trend": 8.386667, "fair_value": 7.942608, "relative_strength": -15.291314, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.710821, "energy": 43.759475, "activity_lines": [ 7.618, 8.122909, 8.125333, 8.18628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.12, "volume": 176505777, "typical_volume": 142435674.95, "trend": 8.350333, "fair_value": 7.960547, "relative_strength": -8.931896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.768855, "energy": 39.958397, "activity_lines": [ 7.624, 8.108727, 8.131857, 8.169075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }