{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d456ba0-dfc4-45dc-939e-eb775ce882ee", "symbol": "MEZ", "name": "Meridian Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.815, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.794, "architecture_energy": 15.893, "architecture_maturity": 12.638, "architecture_confidence": 53.455, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.09, "rotation_up": 22.78, "upward_expansion": 8.61, "deceleration": 53.31, "rotation_down": 43.42, "downward_expansion": 45.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.659333, 4.681091, 4.715381, 4.704625 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.67, "trend_reference": 4.707533, "distance_from_trend": -0.007973, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.944609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.055537, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.822354, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02056, "excess_performance": -0.084266, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007973, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010752, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.055537, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078224, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061744, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02056, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.750916, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64966, "relative_activity": 0.706884, "balance": 1.750916, "dry_up": 0.686346, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043403, "annualized_volatility": 0.159217, "from_high_reference": -0.109264, "from_low_reference": 0.06865 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.707533, "fair_value_reference": 4.944609, "structural_low": 4.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.005294, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.006485, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.105726, "worst_return": -0.081195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.00731, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.003547, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.116705, "worst_return": -0.044747, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011778, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.034679, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.171897, "worst_return": -0.114986, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02403, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01378, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003884, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"close": 4.7, "volume": 55974, "typical_volume": 111127.15, "trend": 4.722957, "fair_value": 4.94309, "relative_strength": -2.946765, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.95448, "energy": 13.007456, "activity_lines": [ 4.689333, 4.727818, 4.726429, 4.716674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.71, "volume": 92918, "typical_volume": 112487.8, "trend": 4.721022, "fair_value": 4.944401, "relative_strength": -2.298713, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.637265, "energy": 12.12, "activity_lines": [ 4.690667, 4.718909, 4.728048, 4.715838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.59, "volume": 38456, "typical_volume": 98155.1, "trend": 4.71278, "fair_value": 4.943843, "relative_strength": -6.705042, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.249421, "energy": 22.959964, "activity_lines": [ 4.66, 4.690364, 4.718238, 4.707385 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.67, "volume": 64966, "typical_volume": 91904.8, "trend": 4.707533, "fair_value": 4.944609, "relative_strength": -7.822354, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.793715, "energy": 15.892516, "activity_lines": [ 4.659333, 4.681091, 4.715381, 4.704625 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }