{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d459d73-d003-45d6-8b52-08b59d237f51", "symbol": "RXL", "name": "Rox Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.006, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.753, "architecture_energy": 17.042, "architecture_maturity": 32.822, "architecture_confidence": 53.972, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.83, "rotation_up": 23.79, "upward_expansion": 15.09, "deceleration": 61.75, "rotation_down": 41.93, "downward_expansion": 67.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.414333, 0.411636, 0.419095, 0.432301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.47, "trend_reference": 0.458, "distance_from_trend": 0.026201, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.290569, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.617515, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.63101, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.040816, "excess_performance": -0.104522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026201, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012221, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.617515, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07151, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046867, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040816, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.351495, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19209989, "relative_activity": 2.279609, "balance": 2.351495, "dry_up": 1.887372, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106383, "annualized_volatility": 0.55153, "from_high_reference": -0.235772, "from_low_reference": 0.59322 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.458, "fair_value_reference": 0.290569, "structural_low": 0.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.025418, "positive_rate": 0.535714, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.009912, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.377358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.0375, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074641, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.382353, "worst_return": -0.358491, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.160685, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.392857, "worst_return": -0.264706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.762382, "energy": 63.210979, "activity_lines": [ 0.4, 0.413182, 0.423714, 0.441871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.385, "volume": 12973780, "typical_volume": 8234957.75, "trend": 0.462833, "fair_value": 0.288005, "relative_strength": -13.132935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.095386, "energy": 58.506986, "activity_lines": [ 0.392333, 0.406545, 0.418857, 0.436645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.385, "volume": 22084841, "typical_volume": 8510328.6, "trend": 0.4595, "fair_value": 0.289031, "relative_strength": -15.48878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.41658, "energy": 52.690924, "activity_lines": [ 0.389, 0.401091, 0.414643, 0.431624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.47, "volume": 19209989, "typical_volume": 8426877.8, "trend": 0.458, "fair_value": 0.290569, "relative_strength": -0.63101, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.75325, "energy": 17.042109, "activity_lines": [ 0.414333, 0.411636, 0.419095, 0.432301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }