{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d4af681-5e18-48d2-982b-5a8d2b81ea1f", "symbol": "300510", "name": "JILIN JINGUAN ELECTRIC Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.534, "architecture_energy": 39.082, "architecture_maturity": 93.628, "architecture_confidence": 92.525, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.41, "rotation_up": 27.33, "upward_expansion": 18.51, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 39.35, "downward_expansion": 68.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.36, 3.314727, 3.514857, 3.74729 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.41, "trend_reference": 4.025, "distance_from_trend": -0.152795, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.616218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.2613, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.647808, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.21968, "excess_performance": -0.227079, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152795, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078526, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.2613, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132751, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236478, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007969, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21968, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.489553, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143149370, "relative_activity": 1.44723, "balance": 0.489553, "dry_up": 1.708715, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086397, "annualized_volatility": 0.359357, "from_high_reference": -0.461295, "from_low_reference": 0.148148 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.025, "fair_value_reference": 4.616218, "structural_low": 2.97, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.01587, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006914, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.184953, "worst_return": -0.255732, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.017713, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030219, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.298969, "worst_return": -0.319298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.115789, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.26022, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.308094, "worst_return": -0.34753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.391759, "energy": 88.940971, "activity_lines": [ 3.220667, 3.404, 3.73081, 3.940968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.12, "volume": 86856531, "typical_volume": 109115509.7, "trend": 4.103333, "fair_value": 4.679679, "relative_strength": -29.691874, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.200559, "energy": 87.523151, "activity_lines": [ 3.173333, 3.316909, 3.644333, 3.875011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.44, "volume": 249895714, "typical_volume": 105032181.8, "trend": 4.077333, "fair_value": 4.657949, "relative_strength": -21.9514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.273011, "energy": 59.898074, "activity_lines": [ 3.254, 3.308545, 3.595952, 3.832215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.4, "volume": 196152520, "typical_volume": 100913520.85, "trend": 4.049, "fair_value": 4.63391, "relative_strength": -20.868102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.520675, "energy": 48.540977, "activity_lines": [ 3.314667, 3.305455, 3.551429, 3.788516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.41, "volume": 143149370, "typical_volume": 98912628.35, "trend": 4.025, "fair_value": 4.616218, "relative_strength": -23.647808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.533915, "energy": 39.082411, "activity_lines": [ 3.36, 3.314727, 3.514857, 3.74729 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }