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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.943, "architecture_energy": 91.564, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.826, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.71, "rotation_up": 84.38, "upward_expansion": 96.46, "deceleration": 41.88, "rotation_down": 8.35, "downward_expansion": 20.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 103.545333, 97.914759, 91.455222, 89.052128 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 111.0, "trend_reference": 86.541137, "distance_from_trend": 0.282627, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.722228, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.688926, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 28.188403, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.291657, "excess_performance": 0.166032, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.282627, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099552, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.688926, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.361742, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.281884, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.217558, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.291657, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.536855, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 436669, "relative_activity": 1.551646, "balance": 4.536855, "dry_up": 1.153945, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065106, "annualized_volatility": 0.33108, "from_high_reference": -0.025375, "from_low_reference": 0.988665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 86.541137, "fair_value_reference": 65.722228, "structural_low": 74.299468, 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86.675711, 84.927251, 84.363448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 93.2, "volume": 172597, "typical_volume": 245130.1, "trend": 83.605672, "fair_value": 65.004239, "relative_strength": 14.126185, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.455509, "energy": 70.944927, "activity_lines": [ 91.473333, 88.259576, 85.789926, 85.027919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 96.35, "volume": 317237, "typical_volume": 256413.85, "trend": 84.342855, "fair_value": 65.181951, "relative_strength": 18.171507, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.521206, "energy": 71.082129, "activity_lines": [ 93.288, 90.260035, 86.916239, 85.850134 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 108.48, "volume": 372484, "typical_volume": 268634.65, "trend": 85.506241, "fair_value": 65.438032, "relative_strength": 30.563195, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.049011, "energy": 84.703251, "activity_lines": [ 98.506, 94.126095, 89.131133, 87.407369 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 111.0, "volume": 436669, "typical_volume": 281423.0, "trend": 86.541137, "fair_value": 65.722228, "relative_strength": 28.188403, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.943462, "energy": 91.564369, "activity_lines": [ 103.545333, 97.914759, 91.455222, 89.052128 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }