{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d51a42f-2561-4c43-a2cb-3115916b4c11", "symbol": "6613", "name": "Nova Technology Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.125, "architecture_energy": 22.856, "architecture_maturity": 66.64, "architecture_confidence": 78.773, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.18, "rotation_up": 17.83, "upward_expansion": 52.23, "deceleration": 93.98, "rotation_down": 37.89, "downward_expansion": 20.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 281.2, 301.802457, 293.118625, 273.7168 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 271.5, "trend_reference": 247.830764, "distance_from_trend": 0.095506, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 174.482667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.556028, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.386273, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.447203, "excess_performance": 0.005831, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095506, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.222157, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.556028, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023075, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083863, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001785, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.447203, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.108034, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2350245, "relative_activity": 1.001459, "balance": 2.108034, "dry_up": 0.994289, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.174681, "annualized_volatility": 0.571614, "from_high_reference": -0.301916, "from_low_reference": 0.705408 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 247.830764, "fair_value_reference": 174.482667, "structural_low": 174.867725, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.023196, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.007155, "regime_survival": 0.473684, "best_return": 0.464789, "worst_return": -0.291855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.077657, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.041682, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.259025, "worst_return": -0.220285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.210113, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.104829, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.577258, "worst_return": -0.042403, "sufficient": 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336.949127, 322.475608, 287.036641, 263.232752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 307.5, "volume": 1495449, "typical_volume": 2238104.3, "trend": 239.956904, "fair_value": 171.026585, "relative_strength": 7.695479, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.362655, "energy": 47.66701, "activity_lines": [ 324.766667, 323.10621, 291.751917, 267.850161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 271.0, "volume": 1977621, "typical_volume": 2278434.1, "trend": 242.445369, "fair_value": 172.189539, "relative_strength": -3.572791, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.116061, "energy": 24.697728, "activity_lines": [ 304.833333, 316.00703, 292.4154, 269.852942 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 276.0, "volume": 3510363, "typical_volume": 2370851.6, "trend": 245.164824, "fair_value": 173.37638, "relative_strength": -3.965037, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.493391, "energy": 22.88648, "activity_lines": [ 290.966667, 309.46731, 293.148615, 272.017757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 271.5, "volume": 2350245, "typical_volume": 2346821.75, "trend": 247.830764, "fair_value": 174.482667, "relative_strength": -8.386273, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.124841, "energy": 22.856163, "activity_lines": [ 281.2, 301.802457, 293.118625, 273.7168 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }