{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d51c352-69e9-44dc-a61a-5ab77ff8c491", "symbol": "002773", "name": "Chengdu Kanghong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.574, "architecture_energy": 22.031, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.484, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.28, "rotation_up": 27.62, "upward_expansion": 19.73, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 24.94, "downward_expansion": 56.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.949334, 21.597023, 21.751174, 22.992084 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.75, "trend_reference": 25.120776, "distance_from_trend": -0.094375, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.412619, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.028302, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.460629, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.224872, "excess_performance": -0.232272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094375, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117803, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.028302, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039746, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.264606, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148194, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.224872, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.270016, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48731077, "relative_activity": 1.135885, "balance": 0.270016, "dry_up": 1.221405, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070688, "annualized_volatility": 0.327444, "from_high_reference": -0.519738, "from_low_reference": 0.175711 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.120776, "fair_value_reference": 23.412619, "structural_low": 19.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.01376, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.652174, "median_excess_return": -0.004512, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.167755, "worst_return": -0.167168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.050265, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039285, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.258494, "worst_return": -0.294394, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.052069, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.002809, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.243319, "worst_return": -0.370239, "sufficient": true }, { 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-45.118448, "energy": 34.946532, "activity_lines": [ 21.686, 21.141232, 22.176792, 23.750944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.98, "volume": 53103741, "typical_volume": 41241731.65, "trend": 25.668776, "fair_value": 23.344383, "relative_strength": -32.074644, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.584621, "energy": 30.119881, "activity_lines": [ 21.612, 21.153181, 21.929443, 23.426937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.540001, "volume": 30879036, "typical_volume": 41529767.1, "trend": 25.361443, "fair_value": 23.365044, "relative_strength": -28.007667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.690191, "energy": 27.870023, "activity_lines": [ 21.646667, 21.274908, 21.76857, 23.160564 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.75, "volume": 48731077, "typical_volume": 42901420.4, "trend": 25.120776, "fair_value": 23.412619, "relative_strength": -26.460629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.573968, "energy": 22.031205, "activity_lines": [ 21.949334, 21.597023, 21.751174, 22.992084 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }