{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d5260bd-edcd-4b98-9a80-9553cf27349b", "symbol": "JPIE", "name": "JP MORGAN ETF TRUST INCOME ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.372, "architecture_energy": 20.846, "architecture_maturity": 13.52, "architecture_confidence": 74.185, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.91, "rotation_up": 33.75, "upward_expansion": 57.46, "deceleration": 85.43, "rotation_down": 26.91, "downward_expansion": 16.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.699464, 45.703476, 45.682358, 45.647532 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 45.84, "trend_reference": 45.598413, "distance_from_trend": 0.005298, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.411891, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.080829, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.816351, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006323, "excess_performance": -0.119302, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005298, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00484, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.080829, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01195, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098164, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003896, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006323, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.891035, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5764852, "relative_activity": 0.881963, "balance": 0.891035, "dry_up": 1.071787, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004096, "annualized_volatility": 0.022623, "from_high_reference": -0.000949, "from_low_reference": 0.039065 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.598413, "fair_value_reference": 42.411891, "structural_low": 45.164908, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.006942, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004566, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.021661, "worst_return": -0.007777, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.04352, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.061386, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04352, "worst_return": 0.04352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.056026, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.163629, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056026, "worst_return": 0.056026, "sufficient": false }, 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"typical_volume": 6541541.55, "trend": 45.580533, "fair_value": 42.360923, "relative_strength": -7.377897, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.026908, "energy": 14.661273, "activity_lines": [ 45.635168, 45.677608, 45.661594, 45.630793 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.84, "volume": 5764852, "typical_volume": 6536389.4, "trend": 45.598413, "fair_value": 42.411891, "relative_strength": -9.816351, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.371538, "energy": 20.846393, "activity_lines": [ 45.699464, 45.703476, 45.682358, 45.647532 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }