{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d534cd5-1e3b-4122-83b9-5e42be2063ec", "symbol": "ISMD", "name": "NORTHERN LIGHTS FUND TRUST IV INSPIRE SMALL MID CAP ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.096, "architecture_energy": 57.788, "architecture_maturity": 62.342, "architecture_confidence": 83.815, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.65, "rotation_up": 54.42, "upward_expansion": 82.67, "deceleration": 63.07, "rotation_down": 27.11, "downward_expansion": 9.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.489333, 49.226533, 47.885676, 46.3496 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.32, "trend_reference": 44.583093, "distance_from_trend": 0.128679, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.813249, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.366899, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.166692, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.179823, "excess_performance": 0.054198, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.128679, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082874, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.366899, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081163, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071667, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026106, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.179823, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.006071, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 165333, "relative_activity": 0.94679, "balance": 1.006071, "dry_up": 1.290415, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036462, "annualized_volatility": 0.162873, "from_high_reference": -0.024339, "from_low_reference": 0.412746 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.583093, "fair_value_reference": 36.813249, "structural_low": 38.42731, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.013363, "positive_rate": 0.607143, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.00719, "regime_survival": 0.678571, "best_return": 0.073762, "worst_return": -0.090888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.007446, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.028667, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.107052, "worst_return": -0.115127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034274, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.035974, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.105831, "worst_return": -0.14776, "sufficient": true }, { 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167410.4, "trend": 43.609978, "fair_value": 36.48847, "relative_strength": 10.639011, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.86845, "energy": 82.391637, "activity_lines": [ 49.26673, 48.52324, 46.698923, 45.293207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.97, "volume": 335380, "typical_volume": 173454.8, "trend": 43.930321, "fair_value": 36.592736, "relative_strength": 9.725279, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.731772, "energy": 67.646945, "activity_lines": [ 49.225333, 48.755972, 47.097848, 45.639015 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.89, "volume": 157263, "typical_volume": 176059.75, "trend": 44.265615, "fair_value": 36.69748, "relative_strength": 8.054148, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.896286, "energy": 55.883595, "activity_lines": [ 49.100667, 48.888228, 47.446833, 45.958994 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.32, "volume": 165333, "typical_volume": 174624.85, "trend": 44.583093, "fair_value": 36.813249, "relative_strength": 7.166692, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.095552, "energy": 57.788032, "activity_lines": [ 49.489333, 49.226533, 47.885676, 46.3496 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }