{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d5aa7c0-b324-4eb4-8094-edaf50ecc3c1", "symbol": "CO", "name": "Casino, Guichard-Perrachon S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.324, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.52, "architecture_energy": 39.723, "architecture_maturity": 16.819, "architecture_confidence": 78.895, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.54, "rotation_up": 12.6, "upward_expansion": 18.1, "deceleration": 42.61, "rotation_down": 60.05, "downward_expansion": 72.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.189233, 0.195473, 0.201908, 0.199453 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.2094, "trend_reference": 0.202273, "distance_from_trend": 0.035233, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.917311, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.990863, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.058857, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.089565, "excess_performance": -0.142877, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035233, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080255, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.990863, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005446, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.300589, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056908, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089565, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.583825, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3486970, "relative_activity": 0.909306, "balance": 0.583825, "dry_up": 0.641926, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115091, "annualized_volatility": 0.822284, "from_high_reference": -0.70507, "from_low_reference": 0.405369 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.202273, "fair_value_reference": 22.917311, "structural_low": 0.149, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.161951, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.16045, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.09058, "worst_return": -0.328358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.255759, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.287261, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.237312, "worst_return": -0.566245, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.433271, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.513464, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.37844, "worst_return": -0.606076, "sufficient": false }, { 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"direction": -37.362048, "energy": 25.117863, "activity_lines": [ 0.196013, 0.207915, 0.203585, 0.202967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1718, "volume": 1762052, "typical_volume": 4316282.5, "trend": 0.206687, "fair_value": 26.175051, "relative_strength": -43.55182, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.740556, "energy": 32.662056, "activity_lines": [ 0.185807, 0.199796, 0.201498, 0.200601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1832, "volume": 2276399, "typical_volume": 3832262.1, "trend": 0.203713, "fair_value": 24.56084, "relative_strength": -39.322814, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.457894, "energy": 37.952633, "activity_lines": [ 0.182427, 0.194715, 0.200462, 0.199086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2094, "volume": 3486970, "typical_volume": 3834757.7, "trend": 0.202273, "fair_value": 22.917311, "relative_strength": -30.058857, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.520024, "energy": 39.722839, "activity_lines": [ 0.189233, 0.195473, 0.201908, 0.199453 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }