{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d5b11e1-f574-4c1f-be15-218494fe45c9", "symbol": "SILV", "name": "Global X Silver Miners UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.521, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.344, "architecture_energy": 36.355, "architecture_maturity": 26.158, "architecture_confidence": 91.546, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.38, "rotation_up": 24.61, "upward_expansion": 7.1, "deceleration": 53.08, "rotation_down": 46.85, "downward_expansion": 75.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.788334, 32.874273, 34.271548, 35.541108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 36.27, "trend_reference": 37.398667, "distance_from_trend": -0.030179, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.639853, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.75728, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.482429, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.079325, "excess_performance": -0.250217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030179, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012773, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.75728, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315665, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074824, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229958, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079325, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.510253, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 138279, "relative_activity": 0.684491, "balance": 0.510253, "dry_up": 0.462774, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086785, "annualized_volatility": 0.56858, "from_high_reference": -0.281498, "from_low_reference": 0.745428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.398667, "fair_value_reference": 20.639853, "structural_low": 29.285, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.018132, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003323, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.158716, "worst_return": -0.122452, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.437344, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.390037, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.437344, "worst_return": 0.437344, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.315932, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.272238, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.315932, "worst_return": 0.315932, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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291393.75, "trend": 37.629667, "fair_value": 20.219199, "relative_strength": -20.11405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.277941, "energy": 72.089652, "activity_lines": [ 32.249001, 33.321728, 35.082595, 36.421979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.095001, "volume": 105533, "typical_volume": 259726.95, "trend": 37.521667, "fair_value": 20.352487, "relative_strength": -14.516114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.994203, "energy": 59.841226, "activity_lines": [ 31.973667, 32.911364, 34.682357, 36.064903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.565001, "volume": 57391, "typical_volume": 229632.15, "trend": 37.432167, "fair_value": 20.478006, "relative_strength": -19.399382, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.557984, "energy": 68.454742, "activity_lines": [ 31.331001, 32.32191, 34.183905, 35.616086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.27, "volume": 138279, "typical_volume": 202017.25, "trend": 37.398667, "fair_value": 20.639853, "relative_strength": -7.482429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.343658, "energy": 36.355429, "activity_lines": [ 32.788334, 32.874273, 34.271548, 35.541108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }