{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d6069e6-cdd1-4fd9-a689-354863316056", "symbol": "200017", "name": "Shenzhen China Bicycle Company (Holdings) Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.589, "architecture_energy": 28.805, "architecture_maturity": 87.655, "architecture_confidence": 75.632, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.34, "rotation_up": 27.51, "upward_expansion": 21.29, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 28.19, "downward_expansion": 57.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.442, 1.416182, 1.471286, 1.549226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.47, "trend_reference": 1.648333, "distance_from_trend": -0.10819, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.555449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054935, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.305494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.201087, "excess_performance": -0.208487, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10819, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080342, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054935, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.249533, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060422, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.201087, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.660675, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 950707, "relative_activity": 1.059076, "balance": 0.660675, "dry_up": 1.139807, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078493, "annualized_volatility": 0.368811, "from_high_reference": -0.309859, "from_low_reference": 0.225 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.648333, "fair_value_reference": 1.555449, "structural_low": 1.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.018868, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.009249, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.226562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.01504, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021457, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.445652, "worst_return": -0.19375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04375, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.040223, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.836957, "worst_return": -0.171171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"direction": -65.91025, "energy": 65.515501, "activity_lines": [ 1.374, 1.424727, 1.558619, 1.633935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.41, "volume": 1378668, "typical_volume": 940351.25, "trend": 1.704, "fair_value": 1.545064, "relative_strength": -23.640101, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.211025, "energy": 61.074649, "activity_lines": [ 1.384, 1.406727, 1.535238, 1.614086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.34, "volume": 538094, "typical_volume": 896009.85, "trend": 1.687667, "fair_value": 1.547372, "relative_strength": -20.027995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.357255, "energy": 61.401623, "activity_lines": [ 1.37, 1.383636, 1.507333, 1.590602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.45, "volume": 1384677, "typical_volume": 913080.65, "trend": 1.673667, "fair_value": 1.550321, "relative_strength": -13.651156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.333246, "energy": 43.338729, "activity_lines": [ 1.396, 1.389273, 1.492476, 1.575269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.46, "volume": 1219232, "typical_volume": 935889.15, "trend": 1.66, "fair_value": 1.552821, "relative_strength": -11.641023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.452161, "energy": 36.614562, "activity_lines": [ 1.423333, 1.401636, 1.480524, 1.561484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.47, "volume": 950707, "typical_volume": 897676.15, "trend": 1.648333, "fair_value": 1.555449, "relative_strength": -15.305494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.588929, "energy": 28.805006, "activity_lines": [ 1.442, 1.416182, 1.471286, 1.549226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }