{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d60bf9d-b19e-4f99-b1f9-070379d7d5bb", "symbol": "IVACC", "name": "Intervacc AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 64.332, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.939, "architecture_energy": 18.482, "architecture_maturity": 56.809, "architecture_confidence": 84.039, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.09, "rotation_up": 23.76, "upward_expansion": 54.77, "deceleration": 90.32, "rotation_down": 27.8, "downward_expansion": 18.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.240667, 1.263745, 1.247486, 1.169716 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.216, "trend_reference": 1.066767, "distance_from_trend": 0.139893, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.492327, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.512103, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.167592, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.323177, "excess_performance": 0.261683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.139893, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129451, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.512103, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049581, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041676, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098089, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.323177, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.360111, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1543300, "relative_activity": 0.865354, "balance": 0.360111, "dry_up": 0.692905, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122723, "annualized_volatility": 0.850495, "from_high_reference": -0.168263, "from_low_reference": 1.125874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.066767, "fair_value_reference": 2.492327, "structural_low": 0.572, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.32069, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.364888, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018919, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059459, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-25", 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"direction": 57.279293, "energy": 43.041768, "activity_lines": [ 1.314, 1.298364, 1.212157, 1.120518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.166, "volume": 1038046, "typical_volume": 2031276.65, "trend": 1.0336, "fair_value": 2.564308, "relative_strength": 4.361999, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.975185, "energy": 31.323935, "activity_lines": [ 1.263467, 1.278145, 1.2189, 1.129675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.27, "volume": 1117047, "typical_volume": 1976917.55, "trend": 1.0452, "fair_value": 2.541006, "relative_strength": 12.058572, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.84121, "energy": 25.941902, "activity_lines": [ 1.259867, 1.278291, 1.23289, 1.144927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.27, "volume": 1244602, "typical_volume": 1888086.95, "trend": 1.056567, "fair_value": 2.515558, "relative_strength": 10.789413, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.28602, "energy": 21.374722, "activity_lines": [ 1.258267, 1.275927, 1.244043, 1.15943 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.216, "volume": 1543300, "typical_volume": 1783432.3, "trend": 1.066767, "fair_value": 2.492327, "relative_strength": 4.167592, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.939364, "energy": 18.482263, "activity_lines": [ 1.240667, 1.263745, 1.247486, 1.169716 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }