{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d65bbf0-4438-49e2-b4d5-0e4bbab0f780", "symbol": "002298", "name": "Anhui ZhongDianXinLong Science and Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.992, "architecture_energy": 30.716, "architecture_maturity": 93.093, "architecture_confidence": 86.711, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.39, "rotation_up": 27.22, "upward_expansion": 16.87, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 35.11, "downward_expansion": 66.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.204667, 7.942182, 8.560857, 9.12757 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.49, "trend_reference": 9.819667, "distance_from_trend": -0.135409, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.055321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203347, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.267473, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.184438, "excess_performance": -0.191838, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135409, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098231, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.203347, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.407626, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212675, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.184438, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.032936, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 380087195, "relative_activity": 1.8071, "balance": 1.032936, "dry_up": 1.499714, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119598, "annualized_volatility": 0.576862, "from_high_reference": -0.433622, "from_low_reference": 0.337008 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.819667, "fair_value_reference": 7.055321, "structural_low": 6.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.040763, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.007789, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.921512, "worst_return": -0.358209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.035758, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.080761, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.491484, "worst_return": -0.349498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.052315, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.085538, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.375661, "worst_return": -0.378594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.802123, "energy": 61.187319, "activity_lines": [ 7.438667, 7.727273, 8.692619, 9.284473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.9, "volume": 599142722, "typical_volume": 219337614.35, "trend": 9.884667, "fair_value": 7.040321, "relative_strength": -13.160687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.506186, "energy": 42.115494, "activity_lines": [ 7.94, 7.856, 8.639, 9.217548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.49, "volume": 380087195, "typical_volume": 210329960.35, "trend": 9.819667, "fair_value": 7.055321, "relative_strength": -21.267473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.991697, "energy": 30.715518, "activity_lines": [ 8.204667, 7.942182, 8.560857, 9.12757 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }