{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d6c8949-2a68-46e0-9407-af81439ee9c2", "symbol": "603689", "name": "Anhui Province Natural Gas DevelopmentCo.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.243, "architecture_energy": 26.234, "architecture_maturity": 62.982, "architecture_confidence": 81.861, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.34, "rotation_up": 25.67, "upward_expansion": 15.39, "deceleration": 46.95, "rotation_down": 32.48, "downward_expansion": 63.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.442667, 7.402545, 7.584968, 7.714117 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.41, "trend_reference": 7.861507, "distance_from_trend": -0.057433, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.880477, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059702, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.178808, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.097213, "excess_performance": -0.054009, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057433, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027757, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059702, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08774, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071788, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023413, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.097213, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.5164, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17903626, "relative_activity": 1.012933, "balance": 0.5164, "dry_up": 1.087101, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046887, "annualized_volatility": 0.189578, "from_high_reference": -0.204576, "from_low_reference": 0.064655 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.861507, "fair_value_reference": 7.880477, "structural_low": 6.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.032597, "positive_rate": 0.866667, "directional_follow_through": 0.133333, "median_excess_return": 0.015813, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.160896, "worst_return": -0.090997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023507, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.052605, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.170513, "worst_return": -0.063744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.106204, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.111301, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.16709, "worst_return": -0.077171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.620162, "energy": 47.899457, "activity_lines": [ 7.334667, 7.413652, 7.638203, 7.763891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.58, "volume": 16403936, "typical_volume": 19406769.85, "trend": 7.874938, "fair_value": 7.882876, "relative_strength": -2.744424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.003071, "energy": 33.878334, "activity_lines": [ 7.437333, 7.418545, 7.617979, 7.744113 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.41, "volume": 17903626, "typical_volume": 17675034.4, "trend": 7.861507, "fair_value": 7.880477, "relative_strength": -7.178808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.242623, "energy": 26.233921, "activity_lines": [ 7.442667, 7.402545, 7.584968, 7.714117 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }