{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d6c8c81-7fe5-4fb1-9b46-b94eee4aaffd", "symbol": "8070", "name": "Arabian Shield Cooperative Insurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.526, "architecture_energy": 19.484, "architecture_maturity": 49.661, "architecture_confidence": 89.894, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.38, "rotation_up": 31.99, "upward_expansion": 58.32, "deceleration": 84.15, "rotation_down": 29.58, "downward_expansion": 19.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.816667, 11.948182, 11.829143, 11.646301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.15, "trend_reference": 11.497333, "distance_from_trend": 0.056767, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.762885, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.275184, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.617952, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.045611, "excess_performance": 0.07744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056767, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006507, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.275184, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080452, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02618, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160345, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045611, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.583481, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1491061, "relative_activity": 1.648979, "balance": 2.583481, "dry_up": 0.906075, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05831, "annualized_volatility": 0.274213, "from_high_reference": -0.158587, "from_low_reference": 0.285714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.497333, "fair_value_reference": 16.762885, "structural_low": 9.45, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.027755, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026431, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.202688, "worst_return": -0.120287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.065084, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.020698, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.134378, "worst_return": -0.226571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.10642, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.066874, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.007839, "worst_return": -0.425494, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043868, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017408, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.008902, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002014, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077586, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 12.126667, 12.046, 11.687857, 11.541075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.17, "volume": 1161148, "typical_volume": 914019.8, "trend": 11.424667, "fair_value": 16.93032, "relative_strength": 2.472405, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.64168, "energy": 36.618675, "activity_lines": [ 12.122, 12.100727, 11.761762, 11.591075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.0, "volume": 320514, "typical_volume": 886253.95, "trend": 11.461, "fair_value": 16.869551, "relative_strength": 0.830855, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.116749, "energy": 30.435454, "activity_lines": [ 12.082, 12.106545, 11.813571, 11.628194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.05, "volume": 304488, "typical_volume": 840445.55, "trend": 11.458333, "fair_value": 16.814872, "relative_strength": -4.773452, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.942546, "energy": 12.812234, "activity_lines": [ 11.735333, 11.921455, 11.77, 11.601677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.15, "volume": 1491061, "typical_volume": 904232.8, "trend": 11.497333, "fair_value": 16.762885, "relative_strength": 2.617952, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.526259, "energy": 19.483695, "activity_lines": [ 11.816667, 11.948182, 11.829143, 11.646301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }