{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d6c9395-5f26-4d14-b9d4-2f9849424d6d", "symbol": "BH-A", "name": "Biglari Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.163, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.765, "architecture_energy": 21.554, "architecture_maturity": 29.894, "architecture_confidence": 46.708, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.53, "rotation_up": 41.97, "upward_expansion": 41.97, "deceleration": 48.4, "rotation_down": 27.61, "downward_expansion": 13.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 1929.754667, 1924.953636, 1805.37181, 1784.536796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1933.77, "trend_reference": 1824.814, "distance_from_trend": 0.059708, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1246.157536, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.551786, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.603951, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.093012, "excess_performance": -0.218637, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059708, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033897, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.551786, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192402, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113488, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.093012, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.983706, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 172275, "relative_activity": 1.703514, "balance": 0.983706, "dry_up": 1.529615, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118071, "annualized_volatility": 0.533995, "from_high_reference": -0.230493, "from_low_reference": 0.562011 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1824.814, "fair_value_reference": 1246.157536, "structural_low": 1238.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.013042, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.011814, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.108385, "worst_return": -0.109374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.10627, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.068331, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.175203, "worst_return": -0.172491, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.055666, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00782, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.28998, "worst_return": -0.202454, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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1809.521636, 1723.556762, 1759.391828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1888.89, "volume": 96824, "typical_volume": 90585.05, "trend": 1824.9, "fair_value": 1228.089038, "relative_strength": 0.526329, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.144061, "energy": 48.644359, "activity_lines": [ 1943.909333, 1842.886545, 1741.325048, 1763.814753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1886.21, "volume": 178560, "typical_volume": 94486.4, "trend": 1826.406667, "fair_value": 1233.683333, "relative_strength": 0.918675, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.32889, "energy": 35.45973, "activity_lines": [ 1930.052, 1870.580182, 1759.315524, 1767.770237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1984.54, "volume": 171096, "typical_volume": 97737.3, "trend": 1832.021667, "fair_value": 1240.011574, "relative_strength": 4.792985, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.824092, "energy": 26.12799, "activity_lines": [ 1937.933333, 1907.275636, 1785.683905, 1777.972387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1933.77, "volume": 172275, "typical_volume": 101129.2, "trend": 1824.814, "fair_value": 1246.157536, "relative_strength": -1.603951, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.764554, "energy": 21.554043, "activity_lines": [ 1929.754667, 1924.953636, 1805.37181, 1784.536796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }