{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d72f713-3045-4714-893f-735f17bd3a7f", "symbol": "6230", "name": "Nidec Chaun-Choung Technology Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.715, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.198, "architecture_energy": 78.491, "architecture_maturity": 22.474, "architecture_confidence": 94.244, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.17, "rotation_up": 14.85, "upward_expansion": 18.86, "deceleration": 37.82, "rotation_down": 73.73, "downward_expansion": 96.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.1, 114.918182, 125.033333, 132.284946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 109.0, "trend_reference": 137.266667, "distance_from_trend": -0.205925, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 168.969546, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.354913, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.662774, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.095436, "excess_performance": -0.536808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.205925, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005494, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.354913, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149145, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.426628, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103567, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095436, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.605887, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 409125, "relative_activity": 0.752775, "balance": 0.605887, "dry_up": 0.684905, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108327, "annualized_volatility": 0.609725, "from_high_reference": -0.427822, "from_low_reference": 0.079208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 137.266667, "fair_value_reference": 168.969546, "structural_low": 101.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.012692, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.033369, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.29703, "worst_return": -0.229091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.00082, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.094233, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.566524, "worst_return": -0.280112, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.036601, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.197986, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.415163, "worst_return": -0.41055, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 126.266667, 130.4, 139.914286, 140.932258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 113.0, "volume": 333320, "typical_volume": 965665.35, "trend": 138.0, "fair_value": 170.305033, "relative_strength": -39.496273, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.81365, "energy": 65.29343, "activity_lines": [ 121.333333, 126.481818, 136.585714, 139.311828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 114.5, "volume": 336475, "typical_volume": 627101.05, "trend": 137.9, "fair_value": 170.064806, "relative_strength": -39.258726, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.066331, "energy": 73.591656, "activity_lines": [ 118.233333, 123.627273, 133.609524, 137.795699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 109.5, "volume": 458198, "typical_volume": 608009.95, "trend": 137.633333, "fair_value": 169.637542, "relative_strength": -40.406873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.104846, "energy": 80.007687, "activity_lines": [ 114.666667, 120.272727, 130.480952, 135.963441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 109.0, "volume": 285156, "typical_volume": 585174.75, "trend": 137.383333, "fair_value": 169.26717, "relative_strength": -41.417508, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.278192, "energy": 80.345807, "activity_lines": [ 111.766667, 117.354545, 127.597619, 134.116129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 109.0, "volume": 409125, "typical_volume": 543489.05, "trend": 137.266667, "fair_value": 168.969546, "relative_strength": -42.662774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.197762, "energy": 78.490675, "activity_lines": [ 110.1, 114.918182, 125.033333, 132.284946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }