{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d85273e-9f42-445b-b2c3-53c3e146e05b", "symbol": "MKB", "name": "Mackenzie Canadian Strategic Fixed Income ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 59.98, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.9, "architecture_energy": 41.082, "architecture_maturity": 6.462, "architecture_confidence": 72.133, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.85, "rotation_up": 7.42, "upward_expansion": 12.45, "deceleration": 49.32, "rotation_down": 67.29, "downward_expansion": 76.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.94257, 19.004071, 19.026617, 19.024712 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.93, "trend_reference": 19.039868, "distance_from_trend": -0.00577, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.193653, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040473, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.610238, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010183, "excess_performance": -0.130605, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00577, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001049, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040473, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017282, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009236, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010183, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.681469, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111500, "relative_activity": 1.23772, "balance": 0.681469, "dry_up": 1.242438, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009162, "annualized_volatility": 0.04349, "from_high_reference": -0.024844, "from_low_reference": 0.024341 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.039868, "fair_value_reference": 18.193653, "structural_low": 18.744196, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.002619, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.013133, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.024199, "worst_return": -0.031548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007327, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.04972, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.039239, "worst_return": -0.06098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01274, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.03293, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.06659, "worst_return": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.568911, "energy": 11.838078, "activity_lines": [ 19.055955, 19.085, 19.047597, 19.046353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.971798, "volume": 87100, "typical_volume": 102620.0, "trend": 19.042974, "fair_value": 18.164019, "relative_strength": -9.777386, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.624922, "energy": 14.909119, "activity_lines": [ 19.016475, 19.066448, 19.044201, 19.04177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.892, "volume": 148800, "typical_volume": 104025.0, "trend": 19.043424, "fair_value": 18.178773, "relative_strength": -9.343418, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.469421, "energy": 32.129008, "activity_lines": [ 18.963153, 19.0307, 19.033547, 19.03203 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.93, "volume": 111500, "typical_volume": 90085.0, "trend": 19.039868, "fair_value": 18.193653, "relative_strength": -11.610238, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.899922, "energy": 41.082056, "activity_lines": [ 18.94257, 19.004071, 19.026617, 19.024712 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }