{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d8a97ad-e97c-416d-b774-2a6bf17dd3d0", "symbol": "S1RE34", "name": "Sempra", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.717, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.895, "architecture_energy": 35.802, "architecture_maturity": 6.225, "architecture_confidence": 45.754, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.47, "rotation_up": 51.6, "upward_expansion": 44.75, "deceleration": 26.82, "rotation_down": 16.65, "downward_expansion": 22.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 119.808004, 119.400328, 118.075497, 118.542723 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 119.160004, "trend_reference": 118.826401, "distance_from_trend": 0.002807, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 106.307685, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120897, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.480009, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.051135, "excess_performance": 0.108184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002807, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008689, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120897, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043073, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0348, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146573, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051135, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.188406, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.188406, "dry_up": 0.017346, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019278, "annualized_volatility": 0.221929, "from_high_reference": -0.063723, "from_low_reference": 0.136986 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 118.826401, "fair_value_reference": 106.307685, "structural_low": 111.551865, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004963, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.006202, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.016853, "worst_return": -0.013779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.01931, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.008919, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124629, "worst_return": -0.036555, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.029507, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.183419, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124807, "worst_return": -0.096781, "sufficient": false }, { 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104.386393, "relative_strength": -5.824785, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.246281, "energy": 29.40788, "activity_lines": [ 115.709144, 115.367464, 117.808988, 118.465442 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 115.721748, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 105.85, "trend": 119.239985, "fair_value": 104.592005, "relative_strength": -5.841345, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.892063, "energy": 27.583201, "activity_lines": [ 115.900222, 115.303592, 117.520162, 118.222283 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 117.720001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 103.8, "trend": 119.005369, "fair_value": 104.828359, "relative_strength": -6.66359, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.775247, "energy": 21.793413, "activity_lines": [ 116.622037, 115.758643, 117.411411, 118.12422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 117.720001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 93.7, "trend": 118.848993, "fair_value": 105.060298, "relative_strength": -7.10228, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.580451, "energy": 21.271762, "activity_lines": [ 117.233193, 116.18533, 117.281912, 118.041293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 122.400002, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 86.5, "trend": 118.939534, "fair_value": 105.322237, "relative_strength": -5.199382, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.437616, "energy": 20.736494, "activity_lines": [ 119.007736, 117.422252, 117.622742, 118.27039 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 122.400002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 84.95, "trend": 119.002204, "fair_value": 105.584176, "relative_strength": -2.674048, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.876797, "energy": 38.677658, "activity_lines": [ 120.394785, 118.570322, 117.953291, 118.493646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 119.160004, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 81.2, "trend": 118.897153, "fair_value": 105.825346, "relative_strength": -5.071737, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.64322, "energy": 37.200178, "activity_lines": [ 120.384002, 118.932062, 117.976554, 118.503827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 119.160004, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 68.9, "trend": 118.819971, "fair_value": 106.066515, "relative_strength": -6.754102, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.962424, "energy": 39.901217, "activity_lines": [ 120.144003, 119.194376, 118.011412, 118.520785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 119.160004, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 57.65, "trend": 118.826401, "fair_value": 106.307685, "relative_strength": -3.480009, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.895157, "energy": 35.802045, "activity_lines": [ 119.808004, 119.400328, 118.075497, 118.542723 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }