{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d8dc92a-0287-4cc7-82ba-a8b90a3cb815", "symbol": "IBIG", "name": "ISHARES TRUST IBONDS OCT 2030 TERM TIPS ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.072, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.055, "architecture_energy": 39.817, "architecture_maturity": 43.022, "architecture_confidence": 68.707, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.08, "rotation_up": 26.71, "upward_expansion": 17.8, "deceleration": 58.25, "rotation_down": 41.49, "downward_expansion": 67.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.62192, 25.621576, 25.696704, 25.810708 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.645, "trend_reference": 25.937782, "distance_from_trend": -0.011288, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.692482, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038575, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.103378, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.019215, "excess_performance": -0.14484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011288, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004705, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038575, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010612, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121034, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00606, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019215, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.615505, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 141644, "relative_activity": 1.020341, "balance": 1.615505, "dry_up": 0.802844, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005508, "annualized_volatility": 0.04219, "from_high_reference": -0.031895, "from_low_reference": 0.006187 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.937782, "fair_value_reference": 24.692482, "structural_low": 25.487312, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.00021, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.007909, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -7.4e-05, "worst_return": -0.000345, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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50.420458, "activity_lines": [ 25.621516, 25.638638, 25.800417, 25.899866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.6784, "volume": 48801, "typical_volume": 132603.8, "trend": 25.97537, "fair_value": 24.67401, "relative_strength": -9.415513, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.846412, "energy": 43.334136, "activity_lines": [ 25.640464, 25.641231, 25.77492, 25.880052 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.5582, "volume": 103256, "typical_volume": 130718.8, "trend": 25.961382, "fair_value": 24.679944, "relative_strength": -9.033825, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.113455, "energy": 45.359966, "activity_lines": [ 25.617972, 25.624424, 25.741101, 25.853138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.6081, "volume": 152103, "typical_volume": 135303.5, "trend": 25.949389, "fair_value": 24.686132, "relative_strength": -9.500093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.420604, "energy": 46.631486, "activity_lines": [ 25.613233, 25.619597, 25.715647, 25.830346 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.645, "volume": 141644, "typical_volume": 138820.3, "trend": 25.937782, "fair_value": 24.692482, "relative_strength": -12.103378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.054772, "energy": 39.816946, "activity_lines": [ 25.62192, 25.621576, 25.696704, 25.810708 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }