{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d8f2b64-3e76-45a2-b011-88cf6e704eb2", "symbol": "SDFI", "name": "AB SHORT DURATION INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.433, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.617, "architecture_energy": 10.626, "architecture_maturity": 22.039, "architecture_confidence": 73.051, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.4, "rotation_up": 33.96, "upward_expansion": 48.04, "deceleration": 72.15, "rotation_down": 26.34, "downward_expansion": 28.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.318808, 35.323581, 35.328296, 35.321699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 35.385, "trend_reference": 35.309085, "distance_from_trend": 0.00215, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.100561, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037666, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.318722, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003046, "excess_performance": -0.122579, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00215, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002721, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037666, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00438, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103187, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00477, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003046, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.321308, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 239242, "relative_activity": 1.956143, "balance": 1.321308, "dry_up": 1.818779, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003869, "annualized_volatility": 0.021526, "from_high_reference": -0.006804, "from_low_reference": 0.029389 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.309085, "fair_value_reference": 34.100561, "structural_low": 34.61355, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.000605, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007094, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.001492, "worst_return": -0.000282, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"energy": 10.479339, "activity_lines": [ 35.288601, 35.31251, 35.32128, 35.316357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.385, "volume": 239242, "typical_volume": 122302.9, "trend": 35.309085, "fair_value": 34.100561, "relative_strength": -10.318722, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.616516, "energy": 10.626085, "activity_lines": [ 35.318808, 35.323581, 35.328296, 35.321699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }