{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8d9a7dbc-9049-433d-afb5-5028532f14f7", "symbol": "300512", "name": "Hangzhou Zhongya Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.577, "architecture_energy": 62.195, "architecture_maturity": 78.133, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 26.07, "upward_expansion": 11.73, "deceleration": 60.79, "rotation_down": 56.13, "downward_expansion": 85.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.708, 6.804413, 7.439347, 7.979598 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.05, "trend_reference": 8.661734, "distance_from_trend": -0.186075, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.749451, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090258, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.115082, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.312865, "excess_performance": -0.320265, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.186075, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10036, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090258, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.297634, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241151, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080159, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.312865, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.32057, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24295556, "relative_activity": 1.50762, "balance": 0.32057, "dry_up": 1.408472, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083853, "annualized_volatility": 0.324482, "from_high_reference": -0.410042, "from_low_reference": 0.159539 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.661734, "fair_value_reference": 7.749451, "structural_low": 6.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.020136, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.022979, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.177391, "worst_return": -0.186066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.057076, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.016179, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.272231, "worst_return": -0.126071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.037464, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053551, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.145658, "worst_return": -0.202949, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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7.897757, 8.41131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.24, "volume": 27272451, "typical_volume": 16566280.8, "trend": 8.873734, "fair_value": 7.77811, "relative_strength": -31.477295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.020475, "energy": 72.324903, "activity_lines": [ 6.589209, 6.922486, 7.687509, 8.231714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.66, "volume": 20164532, "typical_volume": 16042291.2, "trend": 8.744067, "fair_value": 7.764281, "relative_strength": -25.141443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.392519, "energy": 66.255219, "activity_lines": [ 6.579276, 6.807359, 7.537214, 8.088892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.05, "volume": 24295556, "typical_volume": 16115170.9, "trend": 8.661734, "fair_value": 7.749451, "relative_strength": -24.115082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.577168, "energy": 62.195423, "activity_lines": [ 6.708, 6.804413, 7.439347, 7.979598 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }